Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

Technical Report · Sat May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1993

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6276718· OSTI ID:6276718

Ross, M H ^[1]; Thimmapuram, P; Fisher, R E; Maciorowski, W ^[2]

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1. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics
2. Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6276718
• Report Number(s): ANL/EAIS/TM-95; ON: DE93016705
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
ECONOMETRICS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
INDUSTRY
DECISION MAKING
ENERGY ACCOUNTING
ENERGY POLICY
FOSSIL FUELS
L CODES
PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS
PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ACCOUNTING
COMPUTER CODES
ECONOMICS
ENERGY ANALYSIS
ENERGY SOURCES
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
SIMULATION
292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
320301 - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization- Industrial & Agricultural Processes- Energy Sources
990200 - Mathematics & Computers