Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

Smith, D. M.; Eade, R.; Andrews, M. B.; Ayres, H.; Clark, A.; Chripko, S.; Deser, C.; Dunstone, N. J.; García-Serrano, J.; Gastineau, G.; Graff, L. S.; Hardiman, S. C.; He, B.; Hermanson, L.; Jung, T.; Knight, J.; Levine, X.; Magnusdottir, G.; Manzini, E.; Matei, D.; Mori, M.; Msadek, R.; Ortega, P.; Peings, Y.; Scaife, A. A.; Screen, J. A.; Seabrook, M.; Semmler, T.; Sigmond, M.; Streffing, J.; Sun, L.; Walsh, A.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y

Title: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

Journal Article · Mon Feb 07 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y· OSTI ID:1904333

^[1]; Eade, R. ^[1]; Andrews, M. B. ^[1];

^[2]; Clark, A. ^[1]; Chripko, S. ^[3];

^[4]; Dunstone, N. J. ^[1]; García-Serrano, J. ^[5]; Gastineau, G. ^[6];

^[7]; Hardiman, S. C. ^[1];

^[8];

^[1];

^[9]; Knight, J. ^[1];

^[10];

^[11]; Manzini, E. ^[12]; Matei, D. ^[12] more »

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
University of Reading (United Kingdom)
University of Toulouse (France)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
University of Barcelona (Spain)
Sorbonne University, Paris (France)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona (Spain)
University of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)
Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO (United States)

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); European Union (EU); UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); Research council of Norway; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); National Science Foundation (NSF); Chinese Academy of Sciences; Spanish Ramón y Cajal’ programme; German Research Foundation (DFG)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0019407; GA727862; NE/P006760/1; NE/R005125/1; NE/V005855/1; FKZ: 01LP2002A; GA727852; JPMXD0717935457; JPMXD1420318865; JPMEERF20192004; 42030602; 91837101

OSTI ID:: 1904333

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 13, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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