Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan

Pihl, Erik; Alfredsson, Eva; Bengtsson, Magnus; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Cástan Broto, Vanesa; Chou, Kuei Tien; Cleugh, Helen; Ebi, Kristie; Edwards, Clea M.; Fisher, Eleanor; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Godoy-Faúndez, Alex; Gupta, Mukesh; Harrington, Alexandra R.; Hayes, Katie; Hayward, Bronwyn M.; Hebden, Sophie R.; Hickmann, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jackson, Robert B.; Keenan, Trevor F.; Lambino, Ria A.; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Malmaeus, Mikael; McDonald, Robert I.; McMichael, Celia; Miller, Clark A.; Muratori, Matteo; Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Nagendra, Harini; Passarello, Cristian; Penuelas, Josep; Pongratz, Julia; Rockström, Johan; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Roy, Joyashree; Scaife, Adam A.; Schlosser, Peter; Schuur, Edward; Scobie, Michelle; Sherwood, Steven C.; Sioen, Giles B.; Skovgaard, Jakob; Sobenes Obregon, Edgardo A.; Sonntag, Sebastian; Spangenberg, Joachim H.; Spijkers, Otto; Srivastava, Leena; Stammer, Detlef B.; Torres, Pedro C.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Ukkola, Anna M.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Voigt, Christina; Wannous, Chadia; Zelinka, Mark D.

doi:10.1017/sus.2021.2

Title: Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan

Journal Article · Wed Jan 27 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Global Sustainability

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2· OSTI ID:1768310

; Alfredsson, Eva; Bengtsson, Magnus; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Cástan Broto, Vanesa; Chou, Kuei Tien; Cleugh, Helen; Ebi, Kristie;

; Fisher, Eleanor; Friedlingstein, Pierre;

; Gupta, Mukesh; Harrington, Alexandra R.; Hayes, Katie; Hayward, Bronwyn M.; Hebden, Sophie R.; Hickmann, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf; Ilyina, Tatiana more »

We summarize some of the past year’s most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Contributing Organization:: Future Earth Collaboration

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1768310

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1763932

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5400-78709; LLNL-JRNL-816021; MainId:32626; UUID:23112035-9c78-477d-aabd-1cd71fcab5e3; MainAdminID:19739

Journal Information:: Global Sustainability, Vol. 4; ISSN 2059-4798

Publisher:: Cambridge University PressCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Decomposing Temperature Extremes Errors in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Di Luca, Alejandro; Pitman, Andrew J.; de Elía, Ramón Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088031	journal	July 2020
The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review Cianconi, Paolo; Betrò, Sophia; Janiri, Luigi Frontiers in Psychiatry, Vol. 11 https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074	journal	March 2020
The CO ₂ reduction potential for the European industry via direct electrification of heat supply (power-to-heat) Madeddu, Silvia; Ueckerdt, Falko; Pehl, Michaja Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbd02	journal	November 2020
Socio-technical evolution of Decentralized Energy Systems: A critical review and implications for urban planning and policy Adil, Ali M.; Ko, Yekang Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 57 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.079	journal	May 2016
Sociotechnical agendas: Reviewing future directions for energy and climate research Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Hess, David J.; Amir, Sulfikar Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 70 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101617	journal	December 2020
Real capital investments and sustainability - The case of Sweden Alfredsson, Eva C.; Malmaeus, J. Mikael Ecological Economics, Vol. 161 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.04.008	journal	July 2019
Water crisis, drought, and climate change in the southeast United States Craig, C. A.; Feng, S.; Gilbertz, S. Land Use Policy, Vol. 88 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104110	journal	November 2019
A Retrospective Analysis of Energy Access with a Focus on the Role of Mini-Grids Korkovelos, Alexandros; Zerriffi, Hisham; Howells, Mark Sustainability, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051793	journal	February 2020
Policy opportunities to enhance sharing for pandemic research Rourke, Michelle; Eccleston-Turner, Mark; Phelan, Alexandra Science, Vol. 368, Issue 6492 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb9342	journal	May 2020
Climate economics support for the UN climate targets Hänsel, Martin C.; Drupp, Moritz A.; Johansson, Daniel J. A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0833-x	journal	July 2020
Displacement and mental health after natural disasters Schwartz, Rebecca M.; Liu, Bian; Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol. 1, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30138-9	journal	November 2017
Energy Cooperatives and Municipalities in Local Energy Governance Arrangements in Switzerland and Germany Schmid, Benjamin; Meister, Thomas; Klagge, Britta The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 29, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496519886013	journal	November 2019
High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate Zhu, Jiang; Poulsen, Christopher J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6	journal	April 2020
Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget Alarfaj, Abdullah F.; Griffin, W. Michael; Samaras, Constantine Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7c89	journal	September 2020
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Kim, Hyungjun; Utsumi, Nobuyuki Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39936-2	journal	March 2019
Covid-19 and the politics of sustainable energy transitions Kuzemko, Caroline; Bradshaw, Michael; Bridge, Gavin Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 68 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101685	journal	October 2020
Building a Social Mandate for Climate Action: Lessons from COVID-19 Howarth, Candice; Bryant, Peter; Corner, Adam Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 76, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00446-9	journal	July 2020
An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence Sherwood, S. C.; Webb, M. J.; Annan, J. D. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 58, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678	journal	September 2020
Characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of global greening Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Park, Taejin Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0001-x	journal	December 2019
Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change Clayton, Susan Journal of Anxiety Disorders, Vol. 74 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263	journal	August 2020
A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration McMichael, Celia; Dasgupta, Shouro; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb398	journal	November 2020
Carbon loss from northern circumpolar permafrost soils amplified by rhizosphere priming Keuper, Frida; Wild, Birgit; Kummu, Matti Nature Geoscience, Vol. 13, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0607-0	journal	July 2020
Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic Farquharson, Louise M.; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Cable, William L. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082187	journal	June 2019
Can the Paris Agreement Help Climate Change Litigation and Vice Versa? Wegener, Lennart Transnational Environmental Law, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1017/S2047102519000396	journal	January 2020
The Arctic is burning like never before — and that’s bad news for climate change Witze, Alexandra Nature, Vol. 585, Issue 7825 https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02568-y	journal	September 2020
Climate anxiety in young people: a call to action Wu, Judy; Snell, Gaelen; Samji, Hasina The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30223-0	journal	October 2020
The Electric City as a Solution to Sustainable Urban Development Stewart, Iain D.; Kennedy, Chris A.; Facchini, Angelo Journal of Urban Technology, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/10630732.2017.1386940	journal	December 2017
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Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink Tagesson, Torbern; Schurgers, Guy; Horion, Stéphanie Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1090-0	journal	January 2020
East Siberian Arctic inland waters emit mostly contemporary carbon Dean, Joshua F.; Meisel, Ove H.; Martyn Rosco, Melanie Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15511-6	journal	April 2020
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What if São Paulo (Brazil) would like to become a renewable and endogenous energy -based megacity? Collaço, Flávia Mendes de Almeida; Dias, Luís Pereira; Simoes, Sofia G. Renewable Energy, Vol. 138 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.01.073	journal	August 2019

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