Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

Fasullo, John T.; Gent, Peter R.; Nerem, R. Steven

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1

Title: Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

Journal Article · Fri Jul 10 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1· OSTI ID:1667448

^[1]; Gent, Peter R. ^[2]; Nerem, R. Steven ^[3]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

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Research Organization:: Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89243018SSC000007; 1852977; 80NSSC17K0565; IA1844590

OSTI ID:: 1667448

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Vol. 33, Issue 16; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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