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Title: Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

Journal Article · · Nature Communications
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]
  1. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). Depts. of History and Classics; Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Law
  2. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). Dept. of History; Yale Climate & Energy Inst.; Trinity College, Dublin (Ireland). School of Histories & Humanities. Dept. of History
  3. San Francisco State Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth & Climate Sciences
  4. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Science; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  5. Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen (Switzerland). Lab. of Environmental Chemistry; Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
  6. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
+ Show Author Affiliations

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; NFS [AGS-1405053]; NSF [BCS-1437074]
OSTI ID:
1624052
Journal Information:
Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 62 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (15)

2600-years of stratospheric volcanism through sulfate isotopes journal January 2019
The Eldgjá eruption: timing, long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland journal March 2018
Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium journal April 2018
Climate and society in long‐term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets
  • Bavel, Bas J. P.; Curtis, Daniel R.; Hannaford, Matthew J.
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.611
journal August 2019
Documentary data and the study of past droughts: a global state of the art journal January 2018
Egyptian and Greek Water Cultures and Hydro-Technologies in Ancient Times journal November 2020
The Eldgjá eruption: timing, long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland. text January 2018
The End of the “Green Oasis”: Chronological Bayesian Modeling of Human and Environmental Dynamics in the Bahariya Area (Egyptian Sahara) from Pharaonic Third Intermediate Period to Medieval Times journal September 2019
Author Correction: 2600-years of stratospheric volcanism through sulfate isotopes journal June 2019
A letter to my climate change skeptical neighbor: some thoughts about the coastal zone journal August 2019
Regional patterns of pastoralist migrations under the push of reduced precipitation in imperial China journal December 2019
STEAM Approaches to Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Social-Political Conflict book October 2018
Urban-Riverine Hinterland Synergies in Semi-Arid Environments: Millennial-Scale Change, Adaptations, and Environmental Responses at Gerasa/Jerash journal May 2019
A 2000 Year Saharan Dust Event Proxy Record from an Ice Core in the European Alps journal December 2019
Plagues, climate change, and the end of an empire. A response to Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome (2) : P lagues and a crisis of empire journal October 2018

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