Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations

Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

doi:10.1002/2016gl070470

Title: Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations

Journal Article · Tue Aug 09 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070470· OSTI ID:1565408

Shields, Christine A. ^[1]; Kiehl, Jeffrey T. ^[1]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

The latitude of landfall for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is examined in the fully coupled half-degree version of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for warm future climate simulations. Specifically, two regions are examined: U.S. West Coast/North Pacific ARs and United Kingdom/North Atlantic ARs. Changes in AR landfall-latitude reflect changes in the atmospheric steering flow. West Coast U.S. ARs are projected to push equatorward in response to the subtropical jet climate change. UK AR response is dominated by eddy-driven jets and is seasonally dependent. UK simulated AR response is modest in the winter with the largest relative changes occurring in the seasonal transition months. Precipitation associated with ARs is also projected to increase in intensity under global warming. CCSM4 projects a marked shift to higher rainfall rates for Southern California. Small to modest rainfall rates may increase for all UK latitudes, for the Pacific Northwest, and central and northern California.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1565408

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 16; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 76 works

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