Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Yumashev, Dmitry; Hope, Chris; Schaefer, Kevin; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando; Jafarov, Elchin; Burke, Eleanor J.; Young, Paul J.; Elshorbany, Yasin; Whiteman, Gail

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x

Title: Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Journal Article · Tue Apr 23 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x· OSTI ID:1512741

^[1]; Hope, Chris ^[2];

^[3];

^[4]; Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando ^[5];

^[6];

^[7];

^[1]; Elshorbany, Yasin ^[8]; Whiteman, Gail ^[1]

Lancaster Univ., Lancaster (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany)
Lancaster Univ., Lancaster (United Kingdom); Inst. of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, Madrid (Spain)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
UK Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Univ. of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL (United States)

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% (24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% (66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1512741

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-18-25654

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 48 works

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