Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
- Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, (China). School of Atmospheric Sciences
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1416921
- Journal Information:
- Earth System Dynamics (Online), Vol. 8, Issue 3; ISSN 2190-4987
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
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