Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)
- Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States)
RASM is a multi-disciplinary project, which brings together researchers from six state universities, one military postgraduate school, and one DoE laboratory to address the core modeling objectives of the arctic research community articulated in the Arctic System Modeling report by Roberts et al. (2010b). This report advocates the construction of a regional downscaling tool to generate probabilistic decadal projections of Greenland ice sheet retreat, evolution of arctic sea ice cover, changes in land surface vegetation, and regional processes leading to arctic amplification. Unified coupled models such as RASM are ideal for this purpose because they simulate fine-scale physics, essential for the realistic representation of intra-annual variability, in addition to processes fundamental to long term climatic shifts (Hurrell et al. 2009). By using RASM with boundary conditions from a global model, we can generate many-member ensembles essential for understanding uncertainty in regional climate projections (Hawkins and Sutton 2009). This probabilistic approach is computationally prohibitive for high-resolution global models in the foreseeable future, and also for regional models interactively nested within global simulations. Yet it is fundamental for quantifying uncertainty in decadal forecasts to make them useful for decision makers (Doherty et al. 2009). For this reason, we have targeted development of ensemble generation techniques as a core project task (Task 4.5). Environmental impact assessment specialists need high-fidelity regional ensemble projections to improve the accuracy of their work (Challinor et al. 2009; Moss et al. 2010). This is especially true of the Arctic, where economic, social and national interests are rapidly reshaping the high north in step with regional climate change. During the next decade, considerable oil and gas discoveries are expected across many parts of the marine and terrestrial Arctic (Gautier et al. 2009), the economics of the Northern Sea Route will steadily improve (Arctic Council 2009), and sovereign claims over the Arctic Ocean will increasingly be subject to international negotiations (Proelss 2009). Issues such as these have led to an expanding demand for Arctic climate projections to aid national and commercial decisions. However, detailed information from existing models is lacking. RASM will enhance the existing Arctic system modeling capabilities and align them with the scientific and societal needs outlined above. The science involved in the development of RASM will be integrated with teaching and training at a few different levels. RASM PIs will supervise at least six postdoctoral and doctoral students with additional involvement of undergraduate research assistants. RASM postdoctoral fellows and graduate trainees will benefit from being a part of a large, collaborative, and multi-disciplinary research projects employing state-of-the-art modeling and computational tools. They will also have the opportunity to contribute to the UTEP-led education and outreach effort developed specifically for RASM. The UTEP team will use RASM as a platform for education and outreach. First, we will develop products for public dissemination, such as curriculum units, lesson plans and other materials (simulations, movies, and images) for use by students and teachers in high school and university classrooms. Second, we will facilitate bringing RASM PIs, postdocs, and graduate students into the classroom, through electronic mentorship and by contributing content via online lectures and presentations. Third, by the use of problem-based learning (PBL) approaches, we will provide real-world scenarios and problems enabling students to do research and develop position papers or presentations on topics related to RASM. (Problem-based learning is a student-centered, inquiry-based approach in which students work in teams to solve challenging, open-ended problems.) Fourth, we will develop teacher-training materials that will be developed into workshops (face-to-face or online) to help teachers understand how to use the materials we supply. Overall, we will provide a broad, and long-term RASM program for education and outreach. RASM education and outreach activities will target underrepresented populations - in particular, Hispanic students and teachers. For example, the UTEP student body is more than 70 percent Hispanic and 55 percent female, and the majority of students are the first in their families to attend college. Students from underrepresented groups will be given the chance to expand their understanding of the different scientific knowledge and processes associated with RASM. We will develop an eye-catching RASM website to include information about the project, model results and educational materials, and lists of RASM publications and presentations.
- Research Organization:
- Univ. of Texas at El Paso, TX (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- DOE Contract Number:
- SC0006817
- OSTI ID:
- 1334500
- Report Number(s):
- DOE-UTEP-0006817
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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