Benefit-cost analysis with uncertain information: an application in air pollution control
This dissertation develops and demonstrates a form of the net present value decision rule for evaluating the economic advisability of air pollution control policies and projects. It follows a line of argument advanced by earlier authors to derive a formulation of the net present value rule that discounts future benefits and costs at the social rate of time preference but accounts for the lost opportunity costs of the higher returns available to private investments. Using this form, it explores the uncertainties in the resulting calculations, due to inadequate data, for an air pollution control project at a model stationary source of sulfur dioxide air emissions. It examines each of the variables in the rule for both a meso-scale and a long-range transport cast at three levels of background pollutant concentrations. Estimates are given for both the dominance of the variables at specific nominal values and the uncertainty in the individual terms. Detailed reviews are presented of the various financial, effects, and value variables required by the benefit-cost calculation for the model project. The value of an improvement in visibility from a reduction in sulfate particulate matter is calculated for both cases and each background concentration. The economic value of the reduction of ''regional haze'' was found to be greater than the value associated with reducing ''plume blight'' in even the low background case. The calculations of the relative importance and the relative contributions to uncertainty of the different variables gave similar results. Among the more important terms were the pollution estimates from the dispersion model, the value of (the change in risk of) morbidity, the dose-response functions and the thresholds for morbidity, and the financial terms, such as rates of interest. (JMT)
- OSTI ID:
- 5737978
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph.D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
AIR POLLUTION
AIR POLLUTION ABATEMENT
COST
ECONOMICS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PREVENTION OF SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION
SULFUR DIOXIDE
CHALCOGENIDES
CONTROL
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
POLLUTION
POLLUTION ABATEMENT
POLLUTION CONTROL
SULFUR COMPOUNDS
SULFUR OXIDES
500200* - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)
290300 - Energy Planning & Policy- Environment
Health
& Safety