skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Evaluating the economic return to public wind energy research and development in the United States

Journal Article · · Applied Energy

The U.S. government has invested in wind energy research since 1976. Building on a literature that has sought to develop and apply methods for retrospective benefit-to-cost evaluation for federal research programs, this study provides a quantitative analysis of the economic social return on these historical wind energy research investments. Importantly, the study applies multiple innovative methods and varies important input parameters to test the sensitivity of the results. The analysis considers public wind research expenditures and U.S. wind power deployment over the period 1976–2017, while also accounting for the full useful lifetime of wind projects built over this period. Assessed benefits include energy cost savings and health benefits due to reductions in air pollution. Overall, this analysis demonstrates sizable, positive economic returns on past wind energy research. Under the core analysis and with a 3% real discount rate, the net benefits from historical federal wind energy research investments are found to equal $31.4 billion, leading to an 18 to 1 benefit-to-cost ratio and an internal rate of return of 15.4%. Avoided carbon dioxide emissions are not valued in monetary terms, but are estimated at 1510 million metric tons. Alternative methods and input assumptions yield benefit-to-cost ratios that fall within a relatively narrow range from 7-to-1 to 21-to-1, reinforcing in broad terms the general finding of a sizable positive return on investment. Unsurprisingly, results are sensitive to the chosen discount rate, with higher discount rates leading to lower benefit-to-cost ratios, and lower discount rates yielding higher benefit-to-cost ratios.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1581209
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1594945
Journal Information:
Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 261 Journal Issue: C; ISSN 0306-2619
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 12 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (31)

Endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation journal July 2016
Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy journal September 2006
Expert assessments of the state of U.S. advanced fission innovation journal September 2017
Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions journal January 2016
The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review journal February 2018
Potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation journal June 2014
Technological innovation and industrial organization in the Danish wind industry* journal January 1990
Wind power learning rates: A conceptual review and meta-analysis journal May 2012
Historical energy transitions: Speed, prices and system transformation journal December 2016
The climate and air-quality benefits of wind and solar power in the United States journal August 2017
Invention, innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector journal January 2017
Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model journal October 2006
Experiments with a methodology to model the role of R&D expenditures in energy technology learning processes; first results journal October 2004
Wind power costs expected to decrease due to technological progress journal July 2017
Grand challenges in the science of wind energy journal October 2019
The price evolution of wind turbines in China: A study based on the modified multi-factor learning curve journal April 2017
Technical Change Theory and Learning Curves: Patterns of Progress in Electricity Generation Technologies journal July 2007
U.S. energy research and development: Declining investment, increasing need, and the feasibility of expansion journal January 2007
Energy-Technology Innovation journal November 2006
Technology learning in the presence of public R&D: The case of European wind power journal October 2010
Technology policy and renewable energy: public roles in the development of new energy technologies journal February 1999
A review of uncertainties in technology experience curves journal May 2012
Technological learning in energy–environment–economy modelling: A survey journal January 2008
The impacts of wind technology advancement on future global energy journal December 2016
A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies journal November 2015
The impact of R&D on innovation for wind energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom journal August 2005
Changing the view of wind power development: More than “bricolage” journal June 2011
Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs journal September 2016
Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies journal December 2007
A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector journal January 2012
Long-term research challenges in wind energy – a research agenda by the European Academy of Wind Energy journal January 2016