Title: CO₂ fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m^–2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O₃ on future crop yield is affected by CO₂ fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO₂ concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO₂ alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O₃. However, the CO₂ fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O₃ in regions with high O₃ concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate themore » differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O₃ pollution on food security.« less

Authors:

Leung, Felix  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1053-165X"

Sitch, Stephen  ^[2];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1821-8561"

Tai, Amos K.  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-5189-6263"

Wiltshire, Andrew J.  ^[4];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-7307-173X"

Gornall, Jemma L. ^[4]; Folberth, Gerd A.  ^[4];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-1075-440X"

Unger, Nadine  ^[5]

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-7739-2290"

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. University of Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong)
2. University of Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)
3. The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong)
4. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
5. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (China)

Publication Date:

Thu Jun 16 00:00:00 EDT 2022

Research Org.:

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). AmeriFlux

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE; Chinese University of Hong Kong; European Union Horizon 2020; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)

OSTI Identifier:

1982479

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC02-05CH11231; NE/J017337/1; 641816; NE/R001812/1

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Environmental Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 17; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:

IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; ozone; climate change; crop yield; CO2 fertilization