How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; Damberg, Lisa; Phillips, Thomas J.; Miao, Chiyuan; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

doi:10.1002/2014WR016318

Title: How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

Abstract

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. Themore »« less

Authors:

Nasrollahi, Nasrin ^[1]; AghaKouchak, Amir ^[1]; Cheng, Linyin ^[1]; Damberg, Lisa ^[1]; Phillips, Thomas J. ^[2]; Miao, Chiyuan ^[3]; Hsu, Kuolin ^[1]; Sorooshian, Soroosh ^[1]

Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Beijing Normal Univ. Beijing (China)

Publication Date:: Sun Apr 26 00:00:00 EDT 2015

Research Org.:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1289390

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-691042
Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Water Resources Research

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 51; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Nasrollahi, Nasrin, AghaKouchak, Amir, Cheng, Linyin, Damberg, Lisa, Phillips, Thomas J., Miao, Chiyuan, Hsu, Kuolin, and Sorooshian, Soroosh. How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?.  United States: N. p., 2015. 
Web.  doi:10.1002/2014WR016318.

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                    Nasrollahi, Nasrin, AghaKouchak, Amir, Cheng, Linyin, Damberg, Lisa, Phillips, Thomas J., Miao, Chiyuan, Hsu, Kuolin, & Sorooshian, Soroosh. How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016318

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                    Nasrollahi, Nasrin, AghaKouchak, Amir, Cheng, Linyin, Damberg, Lisa, Phillips, Thomas J., Miao, Chiyuan, Hsu, Kuolin, and Sorooshian, Soroosh. Sun .  
"How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016318.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1289390.

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@article{osti_1289390,

  title        = {How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?},

  author       = {Nasrollahi, Nasrin and AghaKouchak, Amir and Cheng, Linyin and Damberg, Lisa and Phillips, Thomas J. and Miao, Chiyuan and Hsu, Kuolin and Sorooshian, Soroosh},

  abstractNote = {Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.},

  doi          = {10.1002/2014WR016318},

  journal      = {Water Resources Research},

  number       = 4,

  volume       = 51,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sun Apr 26 00:00:00 EDT 2015},

  month        = {Sun Apr 26 00:00:00 EDT 2015}

}

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100268
Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

Journal Article Cheng, L. ; Phillips, T. J. ; AghaKouchak, A. - Climate Dynamics

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore »« less
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2625-y

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Title: How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

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Monitoring the 1996 Drought Using the Standardized Precipitation Index journal, March 1999

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models journal, August 2014

Global warming and changes in drought journal, December 2013

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment journal, December 2013

Changes in concurrent monthly precipitation and temperature extremes journal, August 2013

Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations journal, November 2007

Historical evolution of global and regional surface air temperature simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How reliable are the model results? journal, April 2013

The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models: CMIP5 DECADAL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY journal, November 2012

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design journal, April 2012

Entropy–Copula in Hydrology and Climatology journal, December 2014

The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended journal, April 2011

A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901–present journal, January 2013

Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought journal, April 2008

How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America? journal, November 2012

CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States journal, April 2014

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought journal, February 2014

Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran journal, March 2014

Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection journal, October 2013

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations: CMIP5 SIMULATIONS AGAINST SATELLITE DATA journal, February 2014

Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill? journal, January 2009

Diametric changes in trends and patterns of extreme rainfall over India from pre-1950 to post-1950: CHANGES IN INDIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES journal, June 2013

A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record journal, December 2012

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean: PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM CMIP5 MODELS journal, November 2012

Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective journal, July 2012

Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models journal, December 2013

Nonparametric Tests Against Trend journal, July 1945

Kullback-Leibler divergence for evaluating bioequivalence journal, January 2003

Seasonal and regional biases in CMIP5 precipitation simulations journal, May 2014

Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901–96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate journal, July 2000

Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models journal, August 2012

North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology journal, December 2013

Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections journal, January 2013

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data book, January 2012

Evaluation of drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins journal, January 2012

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes journal, March 2014

Global trends and patterns of drought from space journal, September 2013

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system journal, March 2014

A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators journal, February 2015

The relationship between the simulated climatic variability modes of the tropical Atlantic journal, January 2000

On Information and Sufficiency journal, March 1951

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble journal, February 2013

Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology journal, March 1999

An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids journal, January 2005

We thought trouble was coming journal, August 2011

Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation of continuous distributions conference, July 2008

Little change in global drought over the past 60 years journal, November 2012

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections journal, March 2009

Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series journal, March 2002

Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought: Global Warming and Concurrent Extremes journal, December 2014

Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5 journal, February 2013

Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics journal, May 2013

The unusual 2013-2015 drought in South Korea in the context of a multicentury precipitation record: Inferences from a nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model: The Unusual 2013-2015 Drought in South Korea journal, August 2016

Evaluating historical drought characteristics simulated in CORDEX East Asia against observations: EVALUATING HISTORICAL DROUGHTS IN CORDEX-EA AGAINST OBSERVATIONS journal, May 2017

Concurrent droughts and hot extremes in northwest China from 1961 to 2017 journal, December 2018

Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 °C warming journal, December 2018

Global characterization of hydrological and meteorological droughts under future climate change: The importance of timescales, vegetation‐CO 2 feedbacks and changes to distribution functions journal, April 2020

Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM journal, March 2017

Short-term concurrent drought and heatwave frequency with 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China journal, August 2018

Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran journal, March 2018

Effect of climate change on the centennial drought over China using high-resolution NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble data journal, May 2019

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran journal, November 2018

Uncertainty Analysis of Simulations of the Turn‐of‐the‐Century Drought in the Western United States journal, December 2018

Sensitivity of Ozone Dry Deposition to Ecosystem‐Atmosphere Interactions: A Critical Appraisal of Observations and Simulations journal, October 2019

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations journal, July 2017

A millennium-long reconstruction of damaging hydrological events across Italy journal, July 2019

On the prediction of persistent processes using the output of deterministic models journal, September 2017

European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE journal, July 2019

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed journal, November 2017

Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM) journal, January 2018

Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014 journal, January 2017

A millennium-long reconstruction of damaging hydrological events across Italy text, January 2019

Monitoring the 1996 Drought Using the Standardized Precipitation Index
journal, March 1999

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models
journal, August 2014

Global warming and changes in drought
journal, December 2013

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
journal, December 2013

Changes in concurrent monthly precipitation and temperature extremes
journal, August 2013

Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations
journal, November 2007

Historical evolution of global and regional surface air temperature simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How reliable are the model results?
journal, April 2013

The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models: CMIP5 DECADAL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY
journal, November 2012

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

Entropy–Copula in Hydrology and Climatology
journal, December 2014

The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended
journal, April 2011

A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901–present
journal, January 2013

Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought
journal, April 2008

How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America?
journal, November 2012

CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States
journal, April 2014

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought
journal, February 2014

Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran
journal, March 2014

Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection
journal, October 2013

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations: CMIP5 SIMULATIONS AGAINST SATELLITE DATA
journal, February 2014

Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill?
journal, January 2009

Diametric changes in trends and patterns of extreme rainfall over India from pre-1950 to post-1950: CHANGES IN INDIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES
journal, June 2013

A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record
journal, December 2012

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean: PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM CMIP5 MODELS
journal, November 2012

Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective
journal, July 2012

Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models
journal, December 2013

Nonparametric Tests Against Trend
journal, July 1945

Kullback-Leibler divergence for evaluating bioequivalence
journal, January 2003

Seasonal and regional biases in CMIP5 precipitation simulations
journal, May 2014

Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901–96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate
journal, July 2000

Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
journal, August 2012

North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology
journal, December 2013

Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections
journal, January 2013

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data
book, January 2012

Evaluation of drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins
journal, January 2012

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes
journal, March 2014

Global trends and patterns of drought from space
journal, September 2013

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system
journal, March 2014

A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators
journal, February 2015

The relationship between the simulated climatic variability modes of the tropical Atlantic
journal, January 2000

On Information and Sufficiency
journal, March 1951

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble
journal, February 2013

Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology
journal, March 1999

An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids
journal, January 2005

We thought trouble was coming
journal, August 2011

Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation of continuous distributions
conference, July 2008

Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
journal, November 2012

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections
journal, March 2009

Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series
journal, March 2002

Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought: Global Warming and Concurrent Extremes
journal, December 2014

Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5
journal, February 2013

Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics
journal, May 2013

The unusual 2013-2015 drought in South Korea in the context of a multicentury precipitation record: Inferences from a nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model: The Unusual 2013-2015 Drought in South Korea
journal, August 2016

Evaluating historical drought characteristics simulated in CORDEX East Asia against observations: EVALUATING HISTORICAL DROUGHTS IN CORDEX-EA AGAINST OBSERVATIONS
journal, May 2017

Concurrent droughts and hot extremes in northwest China from 1961 to 2017
journal, December 2018

Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 °C warming
journal, December 2018

Global characterization of hydrological and meteorological droughts under future climate change: The importance of timescales, vegetation‐CO ₂ feedbacks and changes to distribution functions
journal, April 2020

Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM
journal, March 2017

Short-term concurrent drought and heatwave frequency with 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China
journal, August 2018

Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran
journal, March 2018

Effect of climate change on the centennial drought over China using high-resolution NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble data
journal, May 2019

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran
journal, November 2018

Uncertainty Analysis of Simulations of the Turn‐of‐the‐Century Drought in the Western United States
journal, December 2018

Sensitivity of Ozone Dry Deposition to Ecosystem‐Atmosphere Interactions: A Critical Appraisal of Observations and Simulations
journal, October 2019

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
journal, July 2017

A millennium-long reconstruction of damaging hydrological events across Italy
journal, July 2019

On the prediction of persistent processes using the output of deterministic models
journal, September 2017

European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
journal, July 2019

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
journal, November 2017

Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)
journal, January 2018

Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014
journal, January 2017

A millennium-long reconstruction of damaging hydrological events across Italy
text, January 2019