Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia
Abstract
A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 %more »
- Authors:
- more »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1209517
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Biogeosciences (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 14; Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Rawlins, M. A., McGuire, A. D., Kimball, J. S., Dass, P., Lawrence, D., Burke, E., Chen, X., Delire, C., Koven, C., MacDougall, A., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Miller, P., Moore, J. C., Smith, B., and Sueyoshi, T. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015.
Rawlins, M. A., McGuire, A. D., Kimball, J. S., Dass, P., Lawrence, D., Burke, E., Chen, X., Delire, C., Koven, C., MacDougall, A., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Miller, P., Moore, J. C., Smith, B., & Sueyoshi, T. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015
Rawlins, M. A., McGuire, A. D., Kimball, J. S., Dass, P., Lawrence, D., Burke, E., Chen, X., Delire, C., Koven, C., MacDougall, A., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Miller, P., Moore, J. C., Smith, B., and Sueyoshi, T. Tue .
"Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1209517.
@article{osti_1209517,
title = {Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia},
author = {Rawlins, M. A. and McGuire, A. D. and Kimball, J. S. and Dass, P. and Lawrence, D. and Burke, E. and Chen, X. and Delire, C. and Koven, C. and MacDougall, A. and Peng, S. and Rinke, A. and Saito, K. and Zhang, W. and Alkama, R. and Bohn, T. J. and Ciais, P. and Decharme, B. and Gouttevin, I. and Hajima, T. and Ji, D. and Krinner, G. and Lettenmaier, D. P. and Miller, P. and Moore, J. C. and Smith, B. and Sueyoshi, T.},
abstractNote = {A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015},
journal = {Biogeosciences (Online)},
number = 14,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jul 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Tue Jul 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone
journal, January 2020
- Duncan, Bryan N.; Ott, Lesley E.; Abshire, James B.
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 58, Issue 1
Future nitrogen availability and its effect on carbon sequestration in Northern Eurasia
journal, July 2019
- Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Monier, Erwan
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
journal, March 2018
- McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 15
Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO 2 amplification over northern lands
journal, November 2018
- Li, Zhao; Xia, Jianyang; Ahlström, Anders
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 12
Evaluation of air–soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface
models during winter across the permafrost region
journal, January 2016
- Wang, Wenli; Rinke, Annette; Moore, John C.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
journal, January 2016
- Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure
journal, January 2017
- Göckede, Mathias; Kittler, Fanny; Kwon, Min Jung
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 11, Issue 6
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
journal, March 2015
- Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.
- The Cryosphere Discussions