Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?
Abstract
Abstract Large uncertainty exists in model projections of the land carbon (C) sink response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments lasting a decade or more have investigated ecosystem responses to a step change in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. To interpret FACE results in the context of gradual increases in atmospheric CO 2 over decades to centuries, we used a suite of seven models to simulate the Duke and Oak Ridge FACE experiments extended for 300 years of CO 2 enrichment. We also determine key modeling assumptions that drive divergent projections of terrestrial C uptake and evaluate whether these assumptions can be constrained by experimental evidence. All models simulated increased terrestrial C pools resulting from CO 2 enrichment, though there was substantial variability in quasi‐equilibrium C sequestration and rates of change. In two of two models that assume that plant nitrogen (N) uptake is solely a function of soil N supply, the net primary production response to elevated CO 2 became progressively N limited. In four of five models that assume that N uptake is a function of both soil N supply and plant N demand, elevated CO 2 led to reduced ecosystem N losses andmore »
- Authors:
-
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
- Univ. of Western Sydney, NSW (Australia)
- Macquarie Univ., North Ryde, NSW (Australia)
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
- Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany)
- CSIRO Ocean and Atmospheric Flagship, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)
- CSIRO Ocean and Atmospheric Flagship, Victoria (Australia); CSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Australia (Australia); Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park. Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1209197
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1402375
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; AC05‐00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 29; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Walker, Anthony P., Zaehle, Sönke, Medlyn, Belinda E., De Kauwe, Martin G., Asao, Shinichi, Hickler, Thomas, Parton, William, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Wang, Ying -Ping, Wårlind, David, and Norby, Richard J. Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2014GB004995.
Walker, Anthony P., Zaehle, Sönke, Medlyn, Belinda E., De Kauwe, Martin G., Asao, Shinichi, Hickler, Thomas, Parton, William, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Wang, Ying -Ping, Wårlind, David, & Norby, Richard J. Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004995
Walker, Anthony P., Zaehle, Sönke, Medlyn, Belinda E., De Kauwe, Martin G., Asao, Shinichi, Hickler, Thomas, Parton, William, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Wang, Ying -Ping, Wårlind, David, and Norby, Richard J. Mon .
"Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004995. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1209197.
@article{osti_1209197,
title = {Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?},
author = {Walker, Anthony P. and Zaehle, Sönke and Medlyn, Belinda E. and De Kauwe, Martin G. and Asao, Shinichi and Hickler, Thomas and Parton, William and Ricciuto, Daniel M. and Wang, Ying -Ping and Wårlind, David and Norby, Richard J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Large uncertainty exists in model projections of the land carbon (C) sink response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments lasting a decade or more have investigated ecosystem responses to a step change in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. To interpret FACE results in the context of gradual increases in atmospheric CO 2 over decades to centuries, we used a suite of seven models to simulate the Duke and Oak Ridge FACE experiments extended for 300 years of CO 2 enrichment. We also determine key modeling assumptions that drive divergent projections of terrestrial C uptake and evaluate whether these assumptions can be constrained by experimental evidence. All models simulated increased terrestrial C pools resulting from CO 2 enrichment, though there was substantial variability in quasi‐equilibrium C sequestration and rates of change. In two of two models that assume that plant nitrogen (N) uptake is solely a function of soil N supply, the net primary production response to elevated CO 2 became progressively N limited. In four of five models that assume that N uptake is a function of both soil N supply and plant N demand, elevated CO 2 led to reduced ecosystem N losses and thus progressively relaxed nitrogen limitation. Many allocation assumptions resulted in increased wood allocation relative to leaves and roots which reduced the vegetation turnover rate and increased C sequestration. In addition, self‐thinning assumptions had a substantial impact on C sequestration in two models. Accurate representation of N process dynamics (in particular N uptake), allocation, and forest self‐thinning is key to minimizing uncertainty in projections of future C sequestration in response to elevated atmospheric CO 2 .},
doi = {10.1002/2014GB004995},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
number = 4,
volume = 29,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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- Pastore, Melissa A.; Lee, Tali D.; Hobbie, Sarah E.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 9
Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments
journal, August 2015
- Norby, Richard J.; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Domingues, Tomas F.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 209, Issue 1
Terrestrial nitrogen cycling in Earth system models revisited
journal, May 2016
- Stocker, Benjamin D.; Prentice, I. Colin; Cornell, Sarah E.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 210, Issue 4
The influence of rising tropospheric carbon dioxide and ozone on plant productivity
journal, March 2019
- Ainsworth, E. A.; Lemonnier, P.; Wedow, J. M.
- Plant Biology
Mycorrhizal association as a primary control of the CO 2 fertilization effect
journal, June 2016
- Terrer, César; Vicca, Sara; Hungate, Bruce A.
- Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6294
Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change
journal, June 2016
- Aubin, I.; Munson, A. D.; Cardou, F.
- Environmental Reviews, Vol. 24, Issue 2
Simulating Long-Term Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Plant Biomass, and Soil Moisture of a Temperate Grassland Ecosystem under Elevated Atmospheric CO2
journal, December 2019
- Liebermann, Ralf; Breuer, Lutz; Houska, Tobias
- Agronomy, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Comprehensive Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating the Responses of Carbon Fluxes to Climatic Forces in Different Terrestrial Ecosystems
journal, February 2018
- Dou, Xianming; Yang, Yongguo
- Atmosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 3
Mapping Spatial Variations of Structure and Function Parameters for Forest Condition Assessment of the Changbai Mountain National Nature Reserve
journal, December 2019
- Chen, Lin; Ren, Chunying; Zhang, Bai
- Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 24
Processes regulating progressive nitrogen limitation under elevated carbon dioxide: a meta-analysis
journal, January 2016
- Liang, Junyi; Qi, Xuan; Souza, Lara
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 9
Controls of terrestrial ecosystem nitrogen loss on simulated productivity responses to elevated CO 2
journal, January 2018
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- Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 18
The quasi-equilibrium framework revisited: analyzing long-term CO2 enrichment responses in plant–soil models
journal, January 2019
- Jiang, Mingkai; Zaehle, Sönke; De Kauwe, Martin G.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Simulating long-term development of greenhouse gas emissions, plant biomass, and soil moisture of a temperate grassland ecosystem under elevated atmospheric CO₂
text, January 2020
- Liebermann, R.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.
- Karlsruhe
Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones
text, January 2019
- Yu, Kailiang; Smith, William K.; Trugman, Anna T.
- ETH Zurich
Carbon–nitrogen coupling under three schemes of model representation: a traceability analysis
journal, January 2018
- Du, Zhenggang; Weng, Ensheng; Jiang, Lifen
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 11