The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

Askin, Amanda Christine; Barter, Garrett; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn Kataoka

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.005

Title: The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

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Abstract

Here, we present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. Moreover, the model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed natural gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specificmore » alternatives.« less

Authors:

Askin, Amanda Christine ^[1]; Barter, Garrett ^[1]; West, Todd H. ^[1]; Manley, Dawn Kataoka ^[1]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

Publication Date:: Sat Feb 14 00:00:00 EST 2015

Research Org.:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

OSTI Identifier:: 1184451

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1247797

Report Number(s):: SAND-2014-18161J
Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215; 537772

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Energy Policy

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 81; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; heavy duty vehicle; natural gas vehicle; emissions; petroleum; consumer choice

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                    Askin, Amanda Christine, Barter, Garrett, West, Todd H., and Manley, Dawn Kataoka. The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs.  United States: N. p., 2015. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.005.

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                    Askin, Amanda Christine, Barter, Garrett, West, Todd H., & Manley, Dawn Kataoka. The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.005

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                    Askin, Amanda Christine, Barter, Garrett, West, Todd H., and Manley, Dawn Kataoka. Sat .  
"The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.005.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1184451.

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@article{osti_1184451,

  title        = {The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs},

  author       = {Askin, Amanda Christine and Barter, Garrett and West, Todd H. and Manley, Dawn Kataoka},

  abstractNote = {Here, we present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. Moreover, the model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed natural gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specific alternatives.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.005},

  journal      = {Energy Policy},

  number       = ,

  volume       = 81,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sat Feb 14 00:00:00 EST 2015},

  month        = {Sat Feb 14 00:00:00 EST 2015}

}

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