The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O'Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang; Popp, Alexander; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; KC, Samir; Leimbach, Marian; Jiang, Leiwen; Kram, Tom; Rao, Shilpa; Emmerling, Johannes; Ebi, Kristie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenoder, Florian; Da Silva, Lara Aleluia; Smith, Steve; Stehfest, Elke; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Gernaat, David; Masui, Toshihiko; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; Drouet, Laurent; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Harmsen, Mathijs; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Baumstark, Lavinia; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kainuma, Mikiko; Klimont, Zbigniew; Marangoni, Giacomo; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Obersteiner, Michael; Tabeau, Andrzej; Tavoni, Massimo

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Title: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Abstract

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO₂ emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO₂more »« less

Authors:

Riahi, Keywan ^[1]; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^[2]; Kriegler, Elmar ^[3]; Edmonds, Jae ^[4]; O'Neill, Brian C. ^[5]; Fujimori, Shinichiro ^[6]; Bauer, Nico ^[3]; Calvin, Katherine ^[4]; Dellink, Rob ^[7]; Fricko, Oliver ^[1]; Lutz, Wolfgang ^[1]; Popp, Alexander ^[3]; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo ^[1]; KC, Samir ^[8]; Leimbach, Marian ^[3]; Jiang, Leiwen ^[5]; Kram, Tom ^[2]; Rao, Shilpa ^[1]; Emmerling, Johannes ^[9]; Ebi, Kristie ^[10] more »

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Shanghai Univ., Shanghai (China)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy); Bocconi Univ. (Italy)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); KAIST College of Busines, Seoul (Republic of South Korea)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt-Univ. zu Berlin, Berlin (Germany)
Wageningen Univ. and Research Centre (Netherlands)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy); Politecnico di Milano, (Italy)

Publication Date:: Sat Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2017

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1358497

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-115333
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Global Environmental Change

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP; climate change; RCP; community scenarios; mitigation; adaptation

Citation Formats


                    Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O'Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, and Tavoni, Massimo. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview.  United States: N. p., 2017. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.

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                    Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O'Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, & Tavoni, Massimo. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

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                    Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O'Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, and Tavoni, Massimo. Sat .  
"The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1358497.

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@article{osti_1358497,

  title        = {The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview},

  author       = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O'Neill, Brian C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and KC, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenoder, Florian and Da Silva, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},

  abstractNote = {This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},

  journal      = {Global Environmental Change},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 42,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sat Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2017},

  month        = {Sat Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2017}

}

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Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100
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Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska
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Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system
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Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.
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Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management
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Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher
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Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap
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Wijngaard, René Reijer; Biemans, Hester; Lutz, Arthur Friedrich
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Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain
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Cortès, Maria; Turco, Marco; Ward, Philip
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 12
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Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures
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Tiggeloven, Timothy; de Moel, Hans; Winsemius, Hessel C.
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Timescales of emergence of chronic flooding in the major economic center of Guadeloupe
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Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Idier, Déborah; de Michele, Marcello
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Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change
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Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Vernon, C. R.
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Title: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Abstract

Citation Formats

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies journal, July 2015

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios journal, November 2015

International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios journal, December 2009

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions journal, September 2013

The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs journal, September 2010

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The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies journal, January 2014

Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy journal, January 2015

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets journal, September 2013

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration journal, January 2011

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications journal, January 2011

Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES) journal, June 2000

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment journal, February 2010

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks journal, December 2013

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways journal, October 2013

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options journal, September 2013

Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals journal, January 2015

2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C journal, December 2012

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation journal, January 2013

Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C journal, May 2015

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison journal, December 2013

Competition for land journal, September 2010

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models journal, December 2014

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design journal, April 2012

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research journal, September 2013

Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old journal, November 2013

The representative concentration pathways: an overview journal, August 2011

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities journal, February 2012

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture journal, October 2013

Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal journal, October 2014

Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison journal, December 2013

The representative concentration pathways: an overview journal, August 2011

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture journal, October 2013

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities journal, February 2012

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies journal, July 2015

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios journal, November 2015

Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals journal, October 2019

Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy text, January 2019

An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being journal, October 2018

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature journal, December 2019

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations journal, January 2018

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems journal, January 2019

Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM journal, September 2018

Natural climate solutions versus bioenergy: Can carbon benefits of natural succession compete with bioenergy from short rotation coppice? journal, June 2019

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Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11 °C Warming? journal, August 2018

Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: a multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts journal, January 2020

Interannual variability and trends of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflows revealed by MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations during 2003–2017 journal, January 2020

How Will Air Quality Change in South Asia by 2050? journal, February 2018

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading journal, January 2020

The public costs of climate-induced financial instability journal, October 2019

Coal and carbonization in sub-Saharan Africa journal, December 2019

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target journal, April 2018

The effect of education on determinants of climate change risks journal, April 2020

Meridional overturning circulation conveys fast acidification to the deep Atlantic Ocean journal, February 2018

Current Practice and Recommendations for Modelling Global Change Impacts on Water Resource in the Himalayas journal, June 2019

The ethics of negative emissions journal, January 2018

Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people journal, October 2019

Connecting climate action with other Sustainable Development Goals journal, July 2019

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Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming journal, January 2019

An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal journal, January 2019

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways journal, March 2018

Future inclusive wealth and human well-being in regional Japan: projections of sustainability indices based on shared socioeconomic pathways journal, June 2018

Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization journal, December 2018

Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways journal, March 2019

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal journal, September 2019

Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach journal, July 2019

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity journal, April 2018

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios journal, March 2018

Changes in human footprint drive changes in species extinction risk journal, November 2018

The future of Southeast Asia’s forests journal, April 2019

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies
journal, July 2015

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios
journal, November 2015

International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios
journal, December 2009

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions
journal, September 2013

The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs
journal, September 2010

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES
journal, September 2007

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways
journal, October 2012

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions
journal, January 2014

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies
journal, January 2014

Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy
journal, January 2015

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets
journal, September 2013

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration
journal, January 2011

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications
journal, January 2011

Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES)
journal, June 2000

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
journal, December 2013

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
journal, October 2013

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options
journal, September 2013

Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
journal, January 2015

2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C
journal, December 2012

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation
journal, January 2013

Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
journal, May 2015

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
journal, December 2013

Competition for land
journal, September 2010

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models
journal, December 2014

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
journal, September 2013

Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old
journal, November 2013

The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
journal, February 2012

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
journal, October 2013

Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal
journal, October 2014

Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison
journal, December 2013

The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
journal, October 2013

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
journal, February 2012

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies
journal, July 2015

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios
journal, November 2015

Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals
journal, October 2019

Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy
text, January 2019

An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being
journal, October 2018

How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature
journal, December 2019

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations
journal, January 2018

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems
journal, January 2019

Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM
journal, September 2018

Natural climate solutions versus bioenergy: Can carbon benefits of natural succession compete with bioenergy from short rotation coppice?
journal, June 2019

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization
journal, April 2018

Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11 °C Warming?
journal, August 2018

Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: a multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts
journal, January 2020

Interannual variability and trends of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflows revealed by MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations during 2003–2017
journal, January 2020

How Will Air Quality Change in South Asia by 2050?
journal, February 2018

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading
journal, January 2020

The public costs of climate-induced financial instability
journal, October 2019

Coal and carbonization in sub-Saharan Africa
journal, December 2019

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target
journal, April 2018

The effect of education on determinants of climate change risks
journal, April 2020

Meridional overturning circulation conveys fast acidification to the deep Atlantic Ocean
journal, February 2018

Current Practice and Recommendations for Modelling Global Change Impacts on Water Resource in the Himalayas
journal, June 2019

The ethics of negative emissions
journal, January 2018

Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people
journal, October 2019

Connecting climate action with other Sustainable Development Goals
journal, July 2019

Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure
journal, May 2018

Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action
journal, March 2019

Incomplete Ecological Futures
journal, October 2019

Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements
journal, April 2019

Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming
journal, January 2019

An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal
journal, January 2019

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, March 2018

Future inclusive wealth and human well-being in regional Japan: projections of sustainability indices based on shared socioeconomic pathways
journal, June 2018

Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization
journal, December 2018

Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, March 2019

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
journal, September 2019

Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach
journal, July 2019

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity
journal, April 2018

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios
journal, March 2018

Changes in human footprint drive changes in species extinction risk
journal, November 2018

The future of Southeast Asia’s forests
journal, April 2019

The Water–Energy–Food Nexus as a Tool to Transform Rural Livelihoods and Well-Being in Southern Africa
journal, August 2019

Global and Regional Emissions of Radiocarbon from Nuclear Power Plants from 1972 to 2016
journal, June 2018

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system
journal, January 2018