Understanding Islamist political violence through computational social simulation
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
Understanding the process that enables political violence is of great value in reducing the future demand for and support of violent opposition groups. Methods are needed that allow alternative scenarios and counterfactuals to be scientifically researched. Computational social simulation shows promise in developing 'computer experiments' that would be unfeasible or unethical in the real world. Additionally, the process of modeling and simulation reveals and challenges assumptions that may not be noted in theories, exposes areas where data is not available, and provides a rigorous, repeatable, and transparent framework for analyzing the complex dynamics of political violence. This paper demonstrates the computational modeling process using two simulation techniques: system dynamics and agent-based modeling. The benefits and drawbacks of both techniques are discussed. In developing these social simulations, we discovered that the social science concepts and theories needed to accurately simulate the associated psychological and social phenomena were lacking.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 964957
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-08-05107; LA-UR-08-5107; TRN: US200920%%224
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Artificial Societies & Social Simulation, Journal Name: Journal of Artificial Societies & Social Simulation
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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