Toward a more rigorous application of margins and uncertainties within the nuclear weapons life cycle : a Sandia perspective.

Klenke, Scott Edward; Novotny, George Charles; A, Jr, Paulsen Robert; Diegert, Kathleen V; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M

doi:10.2172/933214

Title: Toward a more rigorous application of margins and uncertainties within the nuclear weapons life cycle : a Sandia perspective.

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Abstract

This paper presents the conceptual framework that is being used to define quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) for application in the nuclear weapons (NW) work conducted at Sandia National Laboratories. The conceptual framework addresses the margins and uncertainties throughout the NW life cycle and includes the definition of terms related to QMU and to figures of merit. Potential applications of QMU consist of analyses based on physical data and on modeling and simulation. Appendix A provides general guidelines for addressing cases in which significant and relevant physical data are available for QMU analysis. Appendix B gives the specific guidance that was used to conduct QMU analyses in cycle 12 of the annual assessment process. Appendix C offers general guidelines for addressing cases in which appropriate models are available for use in QMU analysis. Appendix D contains an example that highlights the consequences of different treatments of uncertainty in model-based QMU analyses.

Authors:: Klenke, Scott Edward; Novotny, George Charles; A, Jr, Paulsen Robert; Diegert, Kathleen V; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M

Publication Date:: Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2007

Research Org.:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 933214

Report Number(s):: SAND2007-6219
TRN: US0803791

DOE Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000

Resource Type:: Technical Report

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE; LIFE CYCLE; NUCLEAR WEAPONS; RECOMMENDATIONS; SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES; SIMULATION; Nuclear weapons.; Uncertainty-Mathematical models.; Quality of products.; Product life cycle-Mathematical models.

Citation Formats


                    Klenke, Scott Edward, Novotny, George Charles, A, Jr, Paulsen Robert, Diegert, Kathleen V, Trucano, Timothy Guy, and Pilch, Martin M. Toward a more rigorous application of margins and uncertainties within the nuclear weapons life cycle : a Sandia perspective..  United States: N. p., 2007. 
        Web.  doi:10.2172/933214.

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                    Klenke, Scott Edward, Novotny, George Charles, A, Jr, Paulsen Robert, Diegert, Kathleen V, Trucano, Timothy Guy, & Pilch, Martin M. Toward a more rigorous application of margins and uncertainties within the nuclear weapons life cycle : a Sandia perspective..  United States.  https://doi.org/10.2172/933214

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                    Klenke, Scott Edward, Novotny, George Charles, A, Jr, Paulsen Robert, Diegert, Kathleen V, Trucano, Timothy Guy, and Pilch, Martin M. 2007.  
        "Toward a more rigorous application of margins and uncertainties within the nuclear weapons life cycle : a Sandia perspective.".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.2172/933214.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/933214.

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@article{osti_933214,

  title        = {Toward a more rigorous application of margins and uncertainties within the nuclear weapons life cycle : a Sandia perspective.},

  author       = {Klenke, Scott Edward and Novotny, George Charles and A, Jr, Paulsen Robert and Diegert, Kathleen V and Trucano, Timothy Guy and Pilch, Martin M},

  abstractNote = {This paper presents the conceptual framework that is being used to define quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) for application in the nuclear weapons (NW) work conducted at Sandia National Laboratories. The conceptual framework addresses the margins and uncertainties throughout the NW life cycle and includes the definition of terms related to QMU and to figures of merit. Potential applications of QMU consist of analyses based on physical data and on modeling and simulation. Appendix A provides general guidelines for addressing cases in which significant and relevant physical data are available for QMU analysis. Appendix B gives the specific guidance that was used to conduct QMU analyses in cycle 12 of the annual assessment process. Appendix C offers general guidelines for addressing cases in which appropriate models are available for use in QMU analysis. Appendix D contains an example that highlights the consequences of different treatments of uncertainty in model-based QMU analyses.},

  doi          = {10.2172/933214},

  url          = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/933214},
  journal      = {},
number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},

  month        = {Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}

}

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