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Title: Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.

Abstract

Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
893554
Report Number(s):
SAND2006-5777
TRN: US200625%%338
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SABOTAGE; FUZZY LOGIC; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SECURITY; Fuzzy sets.; Terrorism-Simulation methods.; Terrorist threats.

Citation Formats

Darby, John L. Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.. United States: N. p., 2006. Web. doi:10.2172/893554.
Darby, John L. Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/893554
Darby, John L. 2006. "Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/893554. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/893554.
@article{osti_893554,
title = {Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.},
author = {Darby, John L},
abstractNote = {Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.},
doi = {10.2172/893554},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/893554}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2006},
month = {Fri Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2006}
}