Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource
The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.
- Research Organization:
- Science Applications, Inc., Morgantown, WV (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AM21-78MC08216
- OSTI ID:
- 6382646
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/MC/08216-157
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
APPALACHIA
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
EXPLORATION
NATURAL GAS WELLS
WELL SPACING
WELL STIMULATION
BLACK SHALES
DEVONIAN PERIOD
ECONOMICS
FOAMS
GEOLOGY
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
NATURAL GAS
NUMERICAL DATA
PRODUCTIVITY
RECOVERY
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
RESERVOIR ENGINEERING
BITUMINOUS MATERIALS
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CHATTANOOGA FORMATION
COLLOIDS
COMMINUTION
DATA
DISPERSIONS
ENERGY SOURCES
ENGINEERING
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FRACTURING
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GEOLOGIC AGES
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
GEOLOGIC FORMATIONS
INFORMATION
MATERIALS
MINERAL RESOURCES
NORTH AMERICA
OIL SHALES
PALEOZOIC ERA
RESOURCES
STIMULATION
USA
WELLS
030200* - Natural Gas- Reserves
Geology
& Exploration
030900 - Natural Gas- Artificial Stimulation
Plowshare- (-1989)