Estimation, forecasting, and multiplier-simulation analyses of industrial demand for electricity in the United States
This paper discusses the specification of electricity demand and price equations for manufacturing industries and presents empirical results, based on the data for 16 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) three-digit industries from 1959 to 1976. Performances of estimated coefficients for the equations are evaluated by sample-period simulation tests. The estimated coefficients are then used to forecast electricity demand by industry and also to conduct multiplier-simulation analysis. Preliminary results show that most of the estimated coefficients have the expected signs and are statistically significant. The estimated equations perform well in terms of sample-period simulation tests, registering small mean absolute percentage errors and mean square percentage errors. Forecasted results indicate that total electricity demand for the sector will grow at an average annual rate of 3.4% from 1977 to 1990 with a wide range of variation in the growth rates of individual industries. Results from multiplier simulation analyses reveal that changes in the price of natural gas, the value added, and the costs of generating electricity will affect future industrial demand for electricity substantially.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA); Tennessee Univ., Knoxville (USA). Dept. of Economics
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-26
- OSTI ID:
- 5952196
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-790825-4
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Annual meeting of the American Statistical Association, Washington, DC, USA, 12 Aug 1979
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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