Seismic hazard analysis application of methodology, results, and sensitivity studies. Volume 4
As part of the Site Specific Spectra Project, this report seeks to identify the sources of and minimize uncertainty in estimates of seismic hazards in the Eastern United States. Findings are being used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a synthesis among various methods that can be used in evaluating seismic hazard at the various plants in the Eastern United States. In this volume, one of a five-volume series, we discuss the application of the probabilistic approach using expert opinion. The seismic hazard is developed at nine sites in the Central and Northeastern United States, and both individual experts' and synthesis results are obtained. We also discuss and evaluate the ground motion models used to develop the seismic hazard at the various sites, analyzing extensive sensitivity studies to determine the important parameters and the significance of uncertainty in them. Comparisons are made between probabilistic and real spectral for a number of Eastern earthquakes. The uncertainty in the real spectra is examined as a function of the key earthquake source parameters. In our opinion, the single most important conclusion of this study is that the use of expert opinion to supplement the sparse data available on Eastern United States earthquakes is a viable approach for determining estimted seismic hazard in this region of the country. 29 refs., 15 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 5146781
- Report Number(s):
- NUREG/CR-1582-Vol.4; UCRL-53030-Vol.4; ON: TI86000941; INIS-XA-N--035
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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