Method for forecasting repair and replacement needs for Naval aircraft. Phase 2
This report describes the Phase II work performed on the development of repairs and replacements forecasting algorithms for Naval Aviation Logistics Center support. This new methodology is intended to improve the confidence level between actual and predicted spare parts requirements. Phase II refined the bivariate regression analysis, developed in the Phase I demonstration effort, and expanded the analyses to the multivariable level. This method assumes that the various steps along the parts' supply line that are required to support the Navy under various operations can be modeled based on historical data, or educated assumptions can be input where data are unavailable or inadequate. To demonstrate the feasibility of the method, the P-3 aircraft was selected, and four recent years of maintenance data were studied. The data covered system and parts replacements and other maintenance actions. Two P-3 component data were examined in search of correlations that might exist between various parameters (e.g., flight-hours and time). The results of this phase of the study show that a methodology in which a systematic analysis of historical data coupled with input from maintenance experts results in improved predictive ability. The improvement in estimated needs for spare parts vs actual needs can produce significant cost savings in logistic costs and greater effectiveness through increased readiness. Also included are estimates of 5 years of replacement needs projected for two selected components. The results of the study, along with recommendations for the next phase of the effort, are presented.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 5065493
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/TM-10179; ON: DE87001628
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products. Original copy available until stock is exhausted
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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