Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Van-Hein Sackey, Charles; Levin, Todd; Nock, Destenie

doi:10.1088/2634-4505/ac5fb2

Title: Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Journal Article · Fri Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Environmental Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ac5fb2· OSTI ID:1894784

Van-Hein Sackey, Charles ^[1]; Levin, Todd ^[2]; Nock, Destenie ^[3]

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa's path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

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Research Organization:: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of International Affairs (IA); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357; 2121730

OSTI ID:: 1894784

Journal Information:: Environmental Research, Vol. 2, Issue 2

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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