Trial Implementation of the High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Event Risk Framework to Support Informed Decision-Making

S&T Accomplishment Report · Sat Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016

OSTI ID:1826652

Veeramany, Arun ^[1]; Coles, Garill A ^[1]; Unwin, Stephen D ^[1]; Nguyen, Tony B ^[1]; Dagle, Jeffery E. ^[1]

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1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

In 2015, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a multi-hazard risk-assessment framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) power grid events to support risk-informed decisions for power grid management and emergency planning. The identified framework elements are based on a systematic and comprehensive characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk. In 2016, PNNL performed a trial implementation of the framework for a single hazard category and a set of key power grid asset types as a way to test the framework. A specific realization of a HILF event is referred to as an initiating event, or initiator. An initiating event is the manifestation of a hazard, and can be, for example, an earthquake of specified magnitude at a specified epicenter. Other examples of HILF events include geomagnetic disturbances and pandemics. For this test implementation, grid assets of a benchmark power system transmission network were assigned proxy geographical coordinates associated with Washington State locations; and real-world seismic hazard information was used for those locations. Based on the fragility of the grid assets to events of different severities, the set of possible failure scenarios (i.e., combinations of different asset failures) and their associated probabilities were determined, and recovery of grid assets and restoration of the network were considered. These combinations of failures and their subsequent recovery constitute a HILF event sequence that results in a given level of consequence, such as loss of power over a given geographic area for a given duration. The concurrent quantitative consideration of event probabilities and event consequences characterizes a risk model. For HILF event sequences, risk was expressed as expected unserved energy per year. This implementation demonstrates the feasibility and value of using the HILF event risk framework despite some of the identified challenges. This report discusses this trial implementation and presents risk results and insights from the implementation.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1826652
• Report Number(s): PNNL-25667
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English