Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R.  S.; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0112810

Title: Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Journal Article · Mon Nov 17 00:00:00 EST 2014 · PLoS ONE

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0112810· OSTI ID:1627741

Pan, Shufen ^[1]; Tian, Hanqin ^[2]; Dangal, Shree R. S. ^[2]; Zhang, Chi ^[3]; Yang, Jia ^[2]; Tao, Bo ^[2]; Ouyang, Zhiyun ^[4]; Wang, Xiaoke ^[4]; Lu, Chaoqun ^[2]; Ren, Wei ^[2]; Banger, Kamaljit ^[2]; Yang, Qichun ^[2]; Zhang, Bowen ^[2]; Li, Xia ^[2]

Auburn Univ., AL (United States). School of Forestry and Wildlife Science. International center for Climate and Global Change Research; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences. State Key Lab. of Urban and Regional Ecology
Auburn Univ., AL (United States). School of Forestry and Wildlife Science. International center for Climate and Global Change Research
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi (China). Xinjian Inst. of Ecology and Geography. State Key Lab. of Desert and Oasis Ecology
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences. State Key Lab. of Urban and Regional Ecology

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr21 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5uC (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5uC (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2uC may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5uC. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2.

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Research Organization:: Auburn Univ., AL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: FG02-00ER41132

OSTI ID:: 1627741

Journal Information:: PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, Issue 11; ISSN 1932-6203

Publisher:: Public Library of ScienceCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Responses of global terrestrial water use efficiency to climate change and rising atmospheric CO ₂ concentration in the twenty-first century Pan, Shufen; Chen, Guangsheng; Ren, Wei International Journal of Digital Earth, Vol. 11, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2017.1337818	journal	June 2017
Global and regional variability and change in terrestrial ecosystems net primary production and NDVI: A model-data comparison Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; De Jong, Rogier MDPI Publishing https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-127041	text	January 2016
Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming Yin, Yunhe; Ma, Danyang; Wu, Shaohong Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6	journal	January 2018
Global Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Pasturelands and Rangelands: Magnitude, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Attribution Dangal, Shree R. S.; Tian, Hanqin; Xu, Rongting Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 33, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gb006091	journal	February 2019
Global ammonia emissions from synthetic nitrogen fertilizer applications in agricultural systems: Empirical and process‐based estimates and uncertainty Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14499	journal	November 2018
Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia Li, Zhi; Chen, Yaning; Fang, Gonghuan Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01473-1	journal	May 2017
Contrasting climate risks predicted by dynamic vegetation and ecological niche-based models applied to tree species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Raghunathan, Nima; François, Louis; Dury, Marie Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1405-8	journal	August 2018
Improving Representation of Crop Growth and Yield in the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model and Its Application to China Zhang, Jingting; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Jia Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017ms001253	journal	July 2018
Dynamic changes in terrestrial net primary production and their effects on evapotranspiration Li, Zhi; Chen, Yaning; Wang, Yang Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 20, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2169-2016	journal	January 2016
Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8978	journal	September 2017
WETCHIMP-WSL: intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia Bohn, T. J.; Melton, J. R.; Ito, A. Biogeosciences, Vol. 12, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015	journal	January 2015
Global and Regional Variability and Change in Terrestrial Ecosystems Net Primary Production and NDVI: A Model-Data Comparison Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier Remote Sensing, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8030177	journal	February 2016
Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun Climate of the Past, Vol. 13, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017	journal	January 2017
WETCHIMP-WSL: intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia Bohn, T. J.; Melton, J. R.; Ito, A. Biogeosciences Discussions, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-1907-2015	journal	January 2015
Anthropogenic and climatic influences on carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean: A process-based modeling study: RIVERINE CARBON FLUXES TO ATLANTIC OCEAN Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Najjar, Raymond G. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jg002760	journal	April 2015
Understanding spatiotemporal patterns of global forest NPP using a data-driven method based on GEE Yin, Siyang; Wu, Wenjin; Zhao, Xuejing PLOS ONE, Vol. 15, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230098	journal	March 2020