Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?

Stevenson, Samantha; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Jochum, Markus; Neale, Richard; Deser, Clara; Meehl, Gerald

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00252.1

Title: Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?

Journal Article · Thu Mar 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00252.1· OSTI ID:1564913

Stevenson, Samantha ^[1]; Fox-Kemper, Baylor ^[1]; Jochum, Markus ^[2]; Neale, Richard ^[2]; Deser, Clara ^[2]; Meehl, Gerald ^[2]

Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the following 1° nominal resolution Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations: twentieth-century ensemble, preindustrial control, twenty-first-century projections, and stabilized 2100–2300 “extension runs.” ENSO variability weakens slightly with CO₂; however, various significance tests reveal that changes are insignificant at all but the highest CO₂levels. Comparison with the 1850 control simulation suggests that ENSO changes may become significant on centennial time scales; the lack of signal in the twentieth- versus twenty-first-century ensembles is due to their limited duration. Changes to the mean state are consistent with previous studies: a weakening of the subtropical wind stress curl, an eastward shift of the tropical convective cells, a reduction in the zonal SST gradient, and an increase in vertical thermal stratification take place as CO₂increases. The extratropical thermocline deepens throughout the twenty-first century, with the tropical thermocline changing slowly in response. The adjustment time scale is set by the relevant ocean dynamics, and the delay in its effect on ENSO variability is not diminished by increasing ensemble size. The CCSM4 results imply that twenty-first-century simulations may simply be too short for identification of significant tropical variability response to climate change. An examination of atmospheric teleconnections, in contrast, shows that the remote influences of ENSO do respond rapidly to climate change in some regions, particularly during boreal winter. Finally, this suggests that changes to ENSO impacts may take place well before changes to oceanic tropical variability itself become significant.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1564913

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 6; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 123 works

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