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Title: Extreme winds at northern mid-latitudes since 1871

Journal Article · · Meteorologische Zeitschrift (Berlin)
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4]
  1. University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Inst. of Geography
  2. Justus-Liebig Univ. of Giessen, Giessen (Germany). Dept. of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
  4. Univ. of Neuchatel (Switzerland)
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Studying a sufficiently large sample of extremes or analysing the statistics of their occurrence, including trends, is hampered by the length of the existing observation-based record. New data sets such as the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which consists of an ensemble of 56 members, significantly extend our record back in time. In this paper, we present examples of extremes of winds at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes in 20CR to illustrate challenges and opportunities for analysing extremes over a longer period than previously possible. For four representative storms from Europe and North America, 20CR provides a relatively good depiction of the synoptic-scale meteorological development, although it misses smaller scale features as well as local effects due to orography. For analysing trends of extreme winds, it is shown that the individual ensemble members should be used, rather than the ensemble mean, which appears to be biased towards lower wind speeds early in the record. For the studied locations, decadal variability and trends can best be characterised after around 1950, when the ensemble variance remains consistent. Different methodological approaches for studying changes in extreme winds are discussed. Finally, we show hemispheric maps of trends in extreme wind speeds since 1950.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1564902
Journal Information:
Meteorologische Zeitschrift (Berlin), Vol. 21, Issue 1; ISSN 0941-2948
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 50 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Cited By (17)

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Near‐surface mean wind in Switzerland: Climatology, climate model evaluation and future scenarios journal April 2019
Climate change in Switzerland: a review of physical, institutional, and political aspects: Climate change in Switzerland
  • Brönnimann, Stefan; Appenzeller, Christof; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.280
journal March 2014
Recent Change—Atmosphere book January 2016
Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis to assess climate variability for the European wind industry journal September 2015
Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification, classification and frequencies of events journal October 2013
The 10-Year Return Levels of Maximum Wind Speeds under Frozen and Unfrozen Soil Forest Conditions in Finland journal April 2019
Evaluation of downscaled wind speeds and parameterised gusts for recent and historical windstorms in Switzerland journal August 2016
Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations journal January 2015
A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 journal January 2014
Near‐surface mean wind in Switzerland: Climatology, climate model evaluation and future scenarios text January 2019
Climate change in Switzerland: a review of physical, institutional, and political aspects text January 2014
Evaluation of downscaled wind speeds and parameterised gusts for recent and historical windstorms in Switzerland text January 2016
Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations journal January 2016
Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations text January 2016
Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis to assess climate variability for the European wind industry text January 2014
An Analysis of the “Great Gale of October 1881” using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis text January 2017

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