Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the North Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific Basins Using TRMM Satellite Passive Microwave Observations
- Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States)
- Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Here, a statistical passive microwave intensity estimation (PMW-IE) algorithm for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and northeastern and central Pacific basins is developed and tested. The algorithm is derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) 85-GHz brightness temperatures and near-surface rain-rate retrievals to provide objective estimates of current maximum sustained surface winds (Vmax) and 6-h future Vmax of TCs. The full record of TRMM data (1998–2013) including 2326 TMI overpasses of 503 TCs is separated into dependent samples (1998–2010) for model development and independent samples (2011–13) for model verification. The best track intensities are used as dependent variables in a stepwise multiple-regression approach. Separately for each basin, three regression models are derived using selected 1) 85-GHz-only variables, 2) rain-rate-only variables, and 3) combined 85-GHz and rain variables. The algorithms are assessed using independent samples and those with contemporaneous aircraft-reconnaissance measurements. Rain-only and combined models perform better than the 85-GHz-only model. Lower errors are found for estimating the 6-h future Vmax than estimating the current Vmax using all three models. This implies that it is optimal to use passive-microwave-retrieved rain variables observed a few hours earlier to estimate TC intensity. The MAE (RMSE) of 6-h future Vmax is 9 (12) kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s-1) when testing the combined models with ATL and EPA independent samples. Aircraft-reconnaissance-based independent samples yields a MAE of 9.6 kt and RMSE of 12.6 kt for estimating 6-h future Vmax.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); NASA Hurricane Science Research Program; NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT); Weather And Atmospheric Dynamics (WAAD)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; NA15OAR4590199; NA17OAR4590142; NNX10AG34G; NNX17AH72G
- OSTI ID:
- 1530680
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-775648; 967851
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 58, Issue 2; ISSN 1558-8424
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Active and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Observations in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean
|
journal | March 2019 |
Climatology of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures in Tropical Cyclones and their Relations to Storm Intensities as Seen by FY-3B/MWRI
|
journal | January 2020 |
Similar Records
Global lightning and severe storm monitoring from GPS orbit
Cross Validation of Rainfall Characteristics Estimated from the TRMM PR, a Combined PR–TMI Algorithm, and a C-POL Ground Radar during the Passage of Tropical Cyclone and Nontropical Cyclone Events over Darwin, Australia