Deferred Verification: The Role of New Verification Technologies and Approaches
- Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States)
Researchers at UNIDIR have recently proposed a fundamentally new approach to nuclear arms control verification, dubbed "deferred verification." The concept forgoes inspections at sensitive nuclear sites and inspections of nuclear materials or components in classified form. To implement this concept, a state first divides its territory into a closed segment and an open segment. The total fissile material inventory in the closed segment, which includes the weapon complex, is known and declared with very high accuracy. Essentially no inspections take place in the closed segment. Yet, inspectors have access to the open segment, which includes in particular the civilian nuclear sector. The fissile material inventory in the open segment is known with less accuracy, but uncertainties can be reduced over time using methods of nuclear archaeology. Deferred verification relies primarily on established safeguards techniques and avoids many unresolved verification challenges, including for example the need for information barriers for warhead confirmation measurements. At the same time, deferred verification faces some unique challenges. In this work, we explore some of these challenges and offer possible solutions while maintaining the strengths of the concept; to do so, we examine possible noncompliance strategies in which a state would seek to withhold a higher-than-declared inventory.
- Research Organization:
- Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Nonproliferation and Verification Research and Development (NA-22)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- NA0002534
- OSTI ID:
- 1525301
- Journal Information:
- Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 26, Issue 3-4; ISSN 1073-6700
- Publisher:
- Natural Resources Defense CouncilCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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