Quantifying the effects of CO2-fertilized vegetation on future global climate and carbon dynamics
Climate and the global carbon cycle are a tightly coupled system where changes in climate affect exchange of atmospheric CO{sup 2} with the land biosphere and the ocean, and vice-versa. In particular, the response of the land biosphere to the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO{sup 2} is not well understood. To evaluate the approximate upper and lower limits of land carbon uptake, we perform simulations using a comprehensive climate-carbon model. In one case the land biosphere is vigorously fertilized by added CO{sup 2} and sequesters carbon throughout the 21st century. In a second case, CO{sup 2} fertilization saturates in year 2000; here the land becomes an additional source of CO{sup 2} by 2050. The predicted atmospheric CO{sup 2} concentration at year 2100 differs by 40% between the two cases. We show that current uncertainties preclude determination of whether the land biosphere will amplify or damp atmospheric CO{sup 2} increases by the end of the century.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 15011513
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-JRNL-207218; TRN: US200507%%495
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, Issue 23; Other Information: Journal published December 11, 2004; PBD: 13 Oct 2004
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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