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Title: Modeling and Prediction Overview

Abstract

Effective preparation for and response to the release of toxic materials into the atmosphere hinges on accurate predictions of the dispersion pathway, concentration, and ultimate fate of the chemical or biological agent. Of particular interest is the threat to civilian populations within major urban areas, which are likely targets for potential attacks. The goals of the CBNP Modeling and Prediction area are: (1) Development of a suite of validated, multi-scale, atmospheric transport and fate modeling capabilities for chemical and biological agent releases within the complex urban environment; (2) Integration of these models and related user tools into operational emergency response systems. Existing transport and fate models are being adapted to treat the complex atmospheric flows within and around structures (e.g., buildings, subway systems, urban areas) and over terrain. Relevant source terms and the chemical and physical behavior of gas- and particle-phase species (e.g., losses due to deposition, bio-agent viability, degradation) are also being developed and incorporated into the models. Model validation is performed using both laboratory and field data. CBNP is producing and testing a suite of models with differing levels of complexity and fidelity to address the full range of user needs and applications. Lumped-parameter transport models are beingmore » developed for subway systems and building interiors, supplemented by the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to describe the circulation within large, open spaces such as auditoriums. Both sophisticated CFD transport models and simpler fast-response models are under development to treat the complex flow around individual structures and arrays of buildings. Urban parameterizations are being incorporated into regional-scale weather forecast, meteorological data assimilation, and dispersion models for problems involving larger-scale urban and suburban areas. Source term and dose response models are being developed for use in the transport models. ''Rules of thumb'' provide guidance to emergency responders in situations when immediate response is necessary and model simulations are not available. These modeling capabilities and tools are being integrated into operational systems for planning and training, real time emergency response, and post-event consequence analysis. CBNP interior modeling tools are directed in large part toward implementation into the PROTECT system for CB defense of interior infrastructure facilities. CBNP's exterior modeling tools for treating CB releases within the urban environment are integrated into the existing DOE National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), which provides real-time atmospheric hazard assessments. Internet and Web based software tools provide authorized users with secure remote access to the operational NARAC system. NARAC plume dispersion and health-risk predictions, as well as recommended actions, aid emergency managers and first responders in coordinating multi-agency responses.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
15002132
Report Number(s):
UCRL-ID-150688
TRN: US200408%%128
DOE Contract Number:  
W-7405-ENG-48
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Conference: Project Summary Report for the FY 02 CBNP Annual Report (In 2003 the Nonproliferation Research and Engineering (NN-20) Chemical and Biological National Security Prrogram will publish its fourth Annual Report, Covering FY2002 R&D Accomplishments; Other Information: Project Summary Report for the FY 02 CBNP Annual Report. In 2003 the Nonproliferation Research and Engineering (NN-20) Chemical and Biological National Security Program will publish its fourth Annual Report, Covering FY2002 R&D Accomplishments; PBD: 18 Oct 2002
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; DEPOSITION; FORECASTING; IMPLEMENTATION; INTERNET; PLANNING; SIMULATION; SOURCE TERMS; TARGETS; TESTING; TOXIC MATERIALS; TRAINING; URBAN AREAS; VALIDATION; VIABILITY; WEATHER

Citation Formats

Ermak, D L. Modeling and Prediction Overview. United States: N. p., 2002. Web. doi:10.2172/15002132.
Ermak, D L. Modeling and Prediction Overview. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/15002132
Ermak, D L. 2002. "Modeling and Prediction Overview". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/15002132. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/15002132.
@article{osti_15002132,
title = {Modeling and Prediction Overview},
author = {Ermak, D L},
abstractNote = {Effective preparation for and response to the release of toxic materials into the atmosphere hinges on accurate predictions of the dispersion pathway, concentration, and ultimate fate of the chemical or biological agent. Of particular interest is the threat to civilian populations within major urban areas, which are likely targets for potential attacks. The goals of the CBNP Modeling and Prediction area are: (1) Development of a suite of validated, multi-scale, atmospheric transport and fate modeling capabilities for chemical and biological agent releases within the complex urban environment; (2) Integration of these models and related user tools into operational emergency response systems. Existing transport and fate models are being adapted to treat the complex atmospheric flows within and around structures (e.g., buildings, subway systems, urban areas) and over terrain. Relevant source terms and the chemical and physical behavior of gas- and particle-phase species (e.g., losses due to deposition, bio-agent viability, degradation) are also being developed and incorporated into the models. Model validation is performed using both laboratory and field data. CBNP is producing and testing a suite of models with differing levels of complexity and fidelity to address the full range of user needs and applications. Lumped-parameter transport models are being developed for subway systems and building interiors, supplemented by the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to describe the circulation within large, open spaces such as auditoriums. Both sophisticated CFD transport models and simpler fast-response models are under development to treat the complex flow around individual structures and arrays of buildings. Urban parameterizations are being incorporated into regional-scale weather forecast, meteorological data assimilation, and dispersion models for problems involving larger-scale urban and suburban areas. Source term and dose response models are being developed for use in the transport models. ''Rules of thumb'' provide guidance to emergency responders in situations when immediate response is necessary and model simulations are not available. These modeling capabilities and tools are being integrated into operational systems for planning and training, real time emergency response, and post-event consequence analysis. CBNP interior modeling tools are directed in large part toward implementation into the PROTECT system for CB defense of interior infrastructure facilities. CBNP's exterior modeling tools for treating CB releases within the urban environment are integrated into the existing DOE National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), which provides real-time atmospheric hazard assessments. Internet and Web based software tools provide authorized users with secure remote access to the operational NARAC system. NARAC plume dispersion and health-risk predictions, as well as recommended actions, aid emergency managers and first responders in coordinating multi-agency responses.},
doi = {10.2172/15002132},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/15002132}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Oct 18 00:00:00 EDT 2002},
month = {Fri Oct 18 00:00:00 EDT 2002}
}