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Title: Efficient Monte Carlo With Graph-Based Subsurface Flow and Transport Models

Abstract

Abstract Simulating flow and transport in fractured porous media frequently involves solving numerical discretizations of partial differential equations with a large number of degrees of freedom using discrete fracture network (DFN) models. Uncertainty in the properties of the fracture network that controls flow and transport requires a large number of DFN simulations to statistically describe quantities of interest. However, the computational cost of solving more than a few realizations of a large DFN can be intractable. As a means of circumventing this problem, we utilize both a high‐fidelity DFN model and a graph‐based model of flow and transport in combination with a multifidelity Monte Carlo (MC) method to reduce the number of high‐fidelity simulations that are needed to obtain an accurate estimate of the quantity of interest. We demonstrate the approach by estimating quantiles of the breakthrough time for a conservative tracer in an ensemble of fractured porous media. Our results demonstrate that a multifidelity MC estimate, whose computational cost is equal to the cost of 10 DFN simulations, can be as accurate as a standard MC estimate that utilizes 1,000 DFN simulations. Thus the combination of our graph‐based model with multifidelity MC estimates effectively reduces the computational cost ofmore » the problem by a factor of approximately 100.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1492540
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1438943
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-18-29485
Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water Resources Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 54; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Earth Sciences; Mathematics

Citation Formats

O'Malley, D., Karra, S., Hyman, J. D., Viswanathan, H. S., and Srinivasan, G. Efficient Monte Carlo With Graph-Based Subsurface Flow and Transport Models. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2017WR022073.
O'Malley, D., Karra, S., Hyman, J. D., Viswanathan, H. S., & Srinivasan, G. Efficient Monte Carlo With Graph-Based Subsurface Flow and Transport Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022073
O'Malley, D., Karra, S., Hyman, J. D., Viswanathan, H. S., and Srinivasan, G. 2018. "Efficient Monte Carlo With Graph-Based Subsurface Flow and Transport Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022073. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1492540.
@article{osti_1492540,
title = {Efficient Monte Carlo With Graph-Based Subsurface Flow and Transport Models},
author = {O'Malley, D. and Karra, S. and Hyman, J. D. and Viswanathan, H. S. and Srinivasan, G.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Simulating flow and transport in fractured porous media frequently involves solving numerical discretizations of partial differential equations with a large number of degrees of freedom using discrete fracture network (DFN) models. Uncertainty in the properties of the fracture network that controls flow and transport requires a large number of DFN simulations to statistically describe quantities of interest. However, the computational cost of solving more than a few realizations of a large DFN can be intractable. As a means of circumventing this problem, we utilize both a high‐fidelity DFN model and a graph‐based model of flow and transport in combination with a multifidelity Monte Carlo (MC) method to reduce the number of high‐fidelity simulations that are needed to obtain an accurate estimate of the quantity of interest. We demonstrate the approach by estimating quantiles of the breakthrough time for a conservative tracer in an ensemble of fractured porous media. Our results demonstrate that a multifidelity MC estimate, whose computational cost is equal to the cost of 10 DFN simulations, can be as accurate as a standard MC estimate that utilizes 1,000 DFN simulations. Thus the combination of our graph‐based model with multifidelity MC estimates effectively reduces the computational cost of the problem by a factor of approximately 100.},
doi = {10.1029/2017WR022073},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1492540}, journal = {Water Resources Research},
issn = {0043-1397},
number = 5,
volume = 54,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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Cited by: 21 works
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Works referenced in this record:

On uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics
journal, December 2017


Optimal Model Management for Multifidelity Monte Carlo Estimation
journal, January 2016


Conforming Delaunay Triangulation of Stochastically Generated Three Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks: A Feature Rejection Algorithm for Meshing Strategy
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Modeling flow and transport in fracture networks using graphs
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