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Title: Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

Journal Article · · Progress in Photovoltaics
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2997· OSTI ID:1426858
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington D.C. (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
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Abstract We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply‐focused model based on supply‐chain growth constraints and a demand‐focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in which low‐cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply‐focused and demand‐focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low‐cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GW dc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GW dc in 2040. With low‐cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GW dc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GW dc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1426858
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1422237
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-68976
Journal Information:
Progress in Photovoltaics, Vol. 26, Issue 6; ISSN 1062-7995
Publisher:
WileyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (3)

Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges journal April 2017
Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing: Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing journal March 2016
Utility-scale lithium-ion storage cost projections for use in capacity expansion models conference September 2016

Figures / Tables (10)

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Table 1(p. 5)table Table 1
Table 2(p. 6)table Table 2
Figure 4(p. 7)figure Figure 4
Table 3(p. 7)table Table 3
Figure 5(p. 8)figure Figure 5
Figure 6(p. 9)figure Figure 6
Table 4(p. 9)table Table 4

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Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
deployment
future
modeling
photovoltaics