Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

Schwartz, Stephen E.

doi:10.1002/2017JD028121

Title: Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

Journal Article · Wed Mar 07 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD028121· OSTI ID:1426441

^[1]

Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Abstract Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation‐constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09–0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12–0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1–1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO ₂ abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.

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Research Organization:: Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012704; DE‐SC0012704

OSTI ID:: 1426441

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1432909

Report Number(s):: BNL-203354-2018-JAAM

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 7; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 5 works

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