Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Jahn, Alexandra; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Strand, Warren G.; Lin, Lei; Knutti, Reto; Lamarque, Jean Francois

doi:10.5194/esd-8-827-2017

Title: Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

Journal Article · Tue Sep 19 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Earth System Dynamics (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017· OSTI ID:1416921

Sanderson, Benjamin M. ^[1];

^[2]; Tebaldi, Claudia ^[1]; Wehner, Michael ^[3];

^[1];

^[4];

^[1]; Lehner, Flavio ^[1]; Strand, Warren G. ^[1]; Lin, Lei ^[5];

^[6];

^[1]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, (China). School of Atmospheric Sciences
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1416921

Journal Information:: Earth System Dynamics (Online), Vol. 8, Issue 3; ISSN 2190-4987

Publisher:: European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 137 works

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Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming and implications for regional impacts Camille, Li,; Clio, Michel,; S., Graff, Lise ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000260962	text	January 2018
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4	journal	January 2019
Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5 °C warming scenarios Qu, Xia; Huang, Gang Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32277-6	journal	September 2018
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000256144	text	January 2018
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations Sanderson, Benjamin Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020	journal	January 2020
Assessments of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming Wang, Aihui; Xu, Lianlian; Kong, Xianghui Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-865-2018	journal	June 2018

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