Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

Swann, Abigail L.  S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1604581113

Title: Plant responses to increasing CO₂ reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

Journal Article · Mon Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113· OSTI ID:1377477

^[1];

^[2]; Koven, Charles D. ^[3]; Randerson, James T. ^[4]

Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and Dept. of Biology
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science & Mathematics Division and Environmental Sciences Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science

Rising atmospheric CO₂ will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO₂ also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO₂ reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapo-transpiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO₂ partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO₂, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AGS-1321745

OSTI ID:: 1377477

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 113, Issue 36; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 355 works

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Title: Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

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Title: Plant responses to increasing CO₂ reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity