What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)
Here, one of the substantial improvements to the practice of data analysis in recent decades is the change from reporting just a point estimate for a parameter or characteristic, to now including a summary of uncertainty for that estimate. Understanding the precision of the estimate for the quantity of interest provides better understanding of what to expect and how well we are able to predict future behavior from the process. For example, when we report a sample average as an estimate of the population mean, it is good practice to also provide a confidence interval (or credible interval, if you are doing a Bayesian analysis) to accompany that summary. This helps to calibrate what ranges of values are reasonable given the variability observed in the sample and the amount of data that were included in producing the summary.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOD; USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 1375168
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-16-28977
- Journal Information:
- Quality Progress, Vol. 50, Issue 3; ISSN 0033-524X
- Publisher:
- American Society for Quality ControlCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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