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Title: Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

Abstract

The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  3. ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)
OSTI Identifier:
1349019
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5400-67619
Journal ID: ISSN 0013-936X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308; AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Science and Technology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 51; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0013-936X
Publisher:
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION; transportation; vehicle analysis; vehicle modeling; vehicle emissions; GCAM; systems analysis and integration

Citation Formats

Muratori, Matteo, Smith, Steven J., Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Mignone, Bryan K., and Kheshgi, Haroon S. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1021/acs.est.6b04515.
Muratori, Matteo, Smith, Steven J., Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Mignone, Bryan K., & Kheshgi, Haroon S. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios. United States. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04515
Muratori, Matteo, Smith, Steven J., Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Mignone, Bryan K., and Kheshgi, Haroon S. 2017. "Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios". United States. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04515. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1349019.
@article{osti_1349019,
title = {Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios},
author = {Muratori, Matteo and Smith, Steven J. and Kyle, Page and Link, Robert and Mignone, Bryan K. and Kheshgi, Haroon S.},
abstractNote = {The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b04515},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1349019}, journal = {Environmental Science and Technology},
issn = {0013-936X},
number = 6,
volume = 51,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Mon Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

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Works referenced in this record:

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Health and climate impacts of future United States land freight modelled with global-to-urban models
journal, February 2019


The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals
journal, April 2018


Net-zero emissions energy systems
journal, June 2018