Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.; Bagrow, James P.; Hines, Paul D.  H.

doi:10.1038/srep44499

Title: Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

Journal Article · Mon Mar 20 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Scientific Reports

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44499· OSTI ID:1349000

Korkali, Mert ^[1]; Veneman, Jason G. ^[2]; Tivnan, Brian F. ^[3]; Bagrow, James P. ^[4]; Hines, Paul D. H. ^[5]

Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Computational Engineering Division
The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA (United States)
The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA (United States); Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Vermont Complex Systems Center
Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Vermont Complex Systems Center; Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics
Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Vermont Complex Systems Center; Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Biomedical Engineering

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, has important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication coupling, several researchers have studied models of interdependent networks and reported that increased coupling can increase vulnerability. However, these conclusions come largely from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading failure, relative to those found in actual power and communication networks, and that do not capture the benefits of connecting systems with complementary capabilities. In order to understand the importance of these details, this paper compares network vulnerability in simple topological models and in models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in power systems and find that the power grid model shows a higher level of vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a percolation model of topological cascading in coupled networks to three different models of power networks coupled to communication systems. Again, the more accurate models suggest very different conclusions than the percolation model. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the percolation model, in which zero coupling is optimal. Only in an extreme case, in which communication failures immediately cause grid failures, did we find that increased coupling can be harmful. Together, these results suggest design strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure systems.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344; ECCS-1254549; IIS-1447634

OSTI ID:: 1349000

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-680884

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Vol. 7; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 97 works

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