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Title: Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations [Tropical versus extratropical origins of the spurious 'double ITCZ' in coupled climate models]

Abstract

Abstract The severity of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DI) problem in climate models can be measured by a tropical precipitation asymmetry index (PAI), indicating whether tropical precipitation favors the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models reveals that the PAI is tightly linked to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) bias. As one of the factors determining the SST bias, the asymmetry of tropical net surface heat flux in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations is identified as a skillful predictor of the PAI change from an AMIP to a coupled simulation, with an intermodel correlation of 0.90. Using tropical top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, the correlations are lower but still strong. However, the extratropical asymmetries of surface and TOA fluxes in AMIP simulations cannot serve as useful predictors of the PAI change. This study suggests that the largest source of the DI bias is from the tropics and from atmospheric models.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States); Univ. Corp. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
  3. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1345316
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1402207
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-680530
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-07NA27344
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Xiang, Baoqiang, Zhao, Ming, Held, Isaac M., and Golaz, Jean -Christophe. Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations [Tropical versus extratropical origins of the spurious 'double ITCZ' in coupled climate models]. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2016GL071992.
Xiang, Baoqiang, Zhao, Ming, Held, Isaac M., & Golaz, Jean -Christophe. Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations [Tropical versus extratropical origins of the spurious 'double ITCZ' in coupled climate models]. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071992
Xiang, Baoqiang, Zhao, Ming, Held, Isaac M., and Golaz, Jean -Christophe. 2017. "Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations [Tropical versus extratropical origins of the spurious 'double ITCZ' in coupled climate models]". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071992. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1345316.
@article{osti_1345316,
title = {Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations [Tropical versus extratropical origins of the spurious 'double ITCZ' in coupled climate models]},
author = {Xiang, Baoqiang and Zhao, Ming and Held, Isaac M. and Golaz, Jean -Christophe},
abstractNote = {Abstract The severity of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DI) problem in climate models can be measured by a tropical precipitation asymmetry index (PAI), indicating whether tropical precipitation favors the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models reveals that the PAI is tightly linked to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) bias. As one of the factors determining the SST bias, the asymmetry of tropical net surface heat flux in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations is identified as a skillful predictor of the PAI change from an AMIP to a coupled simulation, with an intermodel correlation of 0.90. Using tropical top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, the correlations are lower but still strong. However, the extratropical asymmetries of surface and TOA fluxes in AMIP simulations cannot serve as useful predictors of the PAI change. This study suggests that the largest source of the DI bias is from the tropics and from atmospheric models.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071992},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1345316}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 3,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 13 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Mon Feb 13 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century
journal, September 2018


Regional and seasonal variations of the double-ITCZ bias in CMIP5 models
journal, September 2017


The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations
journal, January 2018


Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern
journal, December 2018


Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes
journal, August 2019


Ongoing Breakthroughs in Convective Parameterization
journal, April 2019


Theories for Past and Future Monsoon Rainfall Changes
journal, June 2019


On the Sensitivity of the Relationship Between Hadley Circulation Asymmetry and ENSO in CMIP5 Models
journal, September 2018


Tropical Pacific SST and ITCZ Biases in Climate Models: Double Trouble for Future Rainfall Projections?
journal, February 2019


Alleviated Double ITCZ Problem in the NCAR CESM1: A New Cloud Scheme and the Working Mechanisms
journal, September 2018


Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation
journal, May 2017


Better monsoon precipitation in coupled climate models due to bias compensation
journal, November 2019