Excess Capacity in China’s Power Systems: A Regional Analysis
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area. Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Dept.. China Energy Group
- Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States)
This paper examines China’s regional electricity grids using a reliability perspective, which is commonly measured in terms of a reserve margin. Our analysis shows that at the end of 2014, the average reserve margin for China as a whole was roughly 28%, almost twice as high as a typical planning reserve margin in the U.S. However, this national average masks huge variations in reserve margins across major regional power grid areas: the northeastern region has the highest reserve margin of over 60%, followed by the northwestern region at 49%, and the southern grid area at 35%. In this analysis, we also examined future reserve margins for regional electricity grids in China under two scenarios: 1) a low scenario of national annual electricity consumption growth rates of 1.5% between 2015 and 2020 and 1.0% between 2020 and 2025, and 2) a high scenario of annual average growth rates of 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively. Both scenarios suggest that the northeastern, northwestern, and southern regions have significant excess generation capacity, and that this excess capacity situation will continue over the next decade without regulatory intervention. The northern and central regions could have sufficient generation capacity to 2020, but may require additional resources in a higher growth scenario. The eastern region requires new resources by 2020 in both scenarios.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE; Energy Foundation (United States)
- Contributing Organization:
- Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1344103
- Report Number(s):
- LBNL-1006638; ir:1006638
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
China's Coal: Demand, Constraints, and Externalities
Volume 9: A Review of Socioeconomic Impacts of Oil Shale Development WESTERN OIL SHALE DEVELOPMENT: A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT