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Title: Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?

Journal Article · · Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004995· OSTI ID:1209197
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [5];  [1];  [7];  [8];  [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  3. Univ. of Western Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  4. Macquarie Univ., North Ryde, NSW (Australia)
  5. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  6. Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany)
  7. CSIRO Ocean and Atmospheric Flagship, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)
  8. CSIRO Ocean and Atmospheric Flagship, Victoria (Australia); CSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Australia (Australia); Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)
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Abstract Large uncertainty exists in model projections of the land carbon (C) sink response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments lasting a decade or more have investigated ecosystem responses to a step change in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. To interpret FACE results in the context of gradual increases in atmospheric CO 2 over decades to centuries, we used a suite of seven models to simulate the Duke and Oak Ridge FACE experiments extended for 300 years of CO 2 enrichment. We also determine key modeling assumptions that drive divergent projections of terrestrial C uptake and evaluate whether these assumptions can be constrained by experimental evidence. All models simulated increased terrestrial C pools resulting from CO 2 enrichment, though there was substantial variability in quasi‐equilibrium C sequestration and rates of change. In two of two models that assume that plant nitrogen (N) uptake is solely a function of soil N supply, the net primary production response to elevated CO 2 became progressively N limited. In four of five models that assume that N uptake is a function of both soil N supply and plant N demand, elevated CO 2 led to reduced ecosystem N losses and thus progressively relaxed nitrogen limitation. Many allocation assumptions resulted in increased wood allocation relative to leaves and roots which reduced the vegetation turnover rate and increased C sequestration. In addition, self‐thinning assumptions had a substantial impact on C sequestration in two models. Accurate representation of N process dynamics (in particular N uptake), allocation, and forest self‐thinning is key to minimizing uncertainty in projections of future C sequestration in response to elevated atmospheric CO 2 .

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge National Environmental Research Park. Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; AC05‐00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1209197
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1402375
Journal Information:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 4; ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 92 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (32)

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land use change journal September 2015
The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change journal January 2019
Evolution and challenges of dynamic global vegetation models for some aspects of plant physiology and elevated atmospheric CO2 journal October 2015
Differential effect of the nitrogen form on the leaf gas exchange, amino acid composition, and antioxidant response of sweet pepper at elevated CO2 journal June 2018
Elevated CO2 improves growth, modifies anatomy, and modulates essential oil qualitative production and gene expression in Lippia alba (Verbenaceae) journal October 2016
Increasing soil carbon storage: mechanisms, effects of agricultural practices and proxies. A review journal April 2017
Interactions Between Land-Use Change and Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks journal April 2018
Modelling CO2 Impacts on Forest Productivity journal April 2015
Mapping tree density at a global scale journal September 2015
Decadal biomass increment in early secondary succession woody ecosystems is increased by CO2 enrichment journal February 2019
Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition journal August 2019
Long-term increases in soil carbon due to ecosystem fertilization by atmospheric nitrogen deposition demonstrated by regional-scale modelling and observations journal May 2017
Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones journal November 2019
The enigma of terrestrial primary productivity: measurements, models, scales and the diversity-productivity relationship journal December 2016
Using models to guide field experiments: a priori predictions for the CO 2 response of a nutrient- and water-limited native Eucalypt woodland journal May 2016
Emergent climate and CO 2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America journal February 2017
Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long‐term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment experiment journal March 2017
Strong photosynthetic acclimation and enhanced water‐use efficiency in grassland functional groups persist over 21 years of CO 2 enrichment, independent of nitrogen supply journal May 2019
Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments journal August 2015
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Simulating Long-Term Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Plant Biomass, and Soil Moisture of a Temperate Grassland Ecosystem under Elevated Atmospheric CO2 journal December 2019
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