Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics.

Technical Report · Tue Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1177060· OSTI ID:1177060

Darby, John L. ^[1]; Craft, Charles M. ^[1]

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1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 1177060
• Report Number(s): SAND2014-5039; 532917
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES