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Title: Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

Journal Article · · Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3230497· OSTI ID:1076437
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France)
  2. Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France)
  3. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United Staes). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
+ Show Author Affiliations

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

Research Organization:
Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-07ER64439
OSTI ID:
1076437
Journal Information:
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Vol. 19, Issue 4; ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher:
American Institute of Physics (AIP)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 7 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns journal April 2016
Multiple equilibria and oscillatory modes in a mid-latitude ocean-forced atmospheric model journal January 2012

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
atmospheric flow
local predictability
multiple regimes
separatrix