Performance Analysis of Occurrences January 1, 2011-December 31, 2011
This report documents the analysis of the occurrences during the period January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011. The report compares LLNL occurrences by reporting criteria and significance category to see if LLNL is reporting occurrences along similar percentages as other DOE sites. The three-year trends are analyzed. It does not include the analysis of the causes or the lessons learned from the occurrences, as they are analyzed separately. The number and types of occurrences that LLNL reports to DOE varies over time. This variation can be attributed to normally occurring changes in frequency; DOE's or LLNL's heightened interest in a particular subject area; changes in LLNL processes; or emerging problems. Since all of the DOE sites use the same reporting criteria, it is helpful to understand if LLNL is consistent with or diverging from reporting at other sites. This section compares the normalized number of occurrences reported by LLNL and other DOE sites. In order to compare LLNL occurrence reports to occurrence reports from other DOE sites, we normalized (or standardized) the data from the sites. DOE sites vary widely in their budgets, populations, and scope of work and these variations may affect reporting frequency. In addition, reports are required for a wide range of occurrence types, some of which may not be applicable to all DOE sites. For example, one occurrence reporting group is Group 3, Nuclear Safety Basis, and not all sites have nuclear operations. Because limited information is available for all sites, the sites were normalized based on best available information. Site effort hours were extracted from the DOE Computerized Accident Incident Reporting System (CAIRS) and used to normalize (or standardize) the number of occurrences by site. Effort hours are those hours that employees normally work and do not include vacation, holiday hours etc. Sites are responsible for calculating their effort hours and ensuring entry into CAIRS. Out of the 30 DOE sites that reported occurrences into ORPS during January 2011 through December 2011, 28 had effort hours available in CAIRS. Two sites had not submitted effort hours data to CAIRS as of the time data was pulled for this report. In those two cases, third quarter data was used as an estimate of fourth quarter data. The use of estimated data may introduce minor errors in the average, median, and Pearson calculations. Using the effort hours and the frequency of occurrences by site, a rate of occurrence frequency per 100 FTE workers was calculated. This rate is similar to the injury/illness frequency rate: the number of injury/illness cases per 100 FTE workers. To validate that this rate was appropriate to use, we compared the effort hours and the frequency of occurrences by site to determine if a relationship exists between the two, e.g. the more effort hours a site has, the more occurrences they tend to have. This hypothesis was tested using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient Test. The correlation coefficient measures the strength of the linear relationship between effort hours and occurrence frequency. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient Test will determine if the true correlation coefficient is equal to zero (no relationship exists), or if the correlation coefficient is not equal to zero (a relationship exists). Values approaching 1.00 show a more positive correlation. Simple linear regression was also used to display a trend line and to test if a one-way relationship exists between effort hours predicting the number of occurrences a site will have. Using the Pearson Correlation test, for the NNSA sites, effort hours and the number of occurrences are significantly and positively correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.90, as was also seen in the previous report (correlation coefficient of 0.67). All DOE sites are positively correlated with a coefficient of 0.85. As the effort hours increase, so does the number of occurrences and vice versa. Based on the results of the simple linear regression, effort hours were found to predict the number of occurrences.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 1043634
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-TR-539081; TRN: US201214%%148
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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