Observation Targeting for the Tehachapi Pass and Mid-Columbia Basin: WindSENSE Phase III Project Summary Report
The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In Phase III of the project, the focus was on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The typical hub height of a wind turbine is approximately 80-m above ground level (AGL). So it would seem that building meteorological towers in the region upwind of a wind generation facility would provide data necessary to improve the short-term forecasts for the 80-m AGL wind speed. However, this additional meteorological information typically does not significantly improve the accuracy of the 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts because processes controlling wind variability change from day-to-day and, at times, from hour-to-hour. It is also important to note that some processes causing significant changes in wind power production function principally in the vertical direction. These processes will not be detected by meteorological towers at off-site locations. For these reasons, it is quite challenging to determine the best type of sensors and deployment locations. To address the measurement deployment problem, Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) was applied in the Phase I portion of the WindSENSE project. The ESA approach was initially designed to produce spatial fields that depict the sensitivity of a forecast metric to a set of prior state variables selected by the user. The best combination of variables and locations to improve the forecast was determined using the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA) developed in Phase I. In Zack et al. (2010a), the ESA-MOOA approach was applied and evaluated for the wind plants in the Tehachapi Pass region for a period during the warm season. That research demonstrated that forecast sensitivity derived from the dataset was characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of state variables such as the 80-m wind and the 25-m to 1-km temperature difference prior to the forecast time. The sensitivity patterns produced as part of the Tehachapi Pass study were coherent and consistent with the basic physical processes that drive wind patterns in the Tehachapi area. In Phase II of the WindSENSE project, the ESA-MOOA approach was extended and applied to the wind plants located in the Mid-Columbia Basin wind generation area of Washington-Oregon during the summer and to the Tehachapi Pass region during the winter. The objective of this study was to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the two regions and to establish a higher level of confidence in ESA-MOOA for mesoscale applications. The detailed methodology and results are provided in separate technical reports listed in the publications section below. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the Phase III experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Columbia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, running an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis scheme that is less computationally intensive. The objective of this task is to develop an observation system deployment strategy for the mid Columbia Basin (i.e. the BPA wind generation region) that is designed to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of hub-height ({approx}80 m) wind speed with a focus on periods of large changes in wind speed. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach. (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Columbia basin region.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 1035289
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-SR-508412; TRN: US201205%%66
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for the Mid-Columbia Basin
Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting