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Title: Predicting linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation

Abstract

This report is a primer on the analysis of both linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation. We analyze eight simulated and two real time series using both linear and nonlinear modeling techniques. The theoretical treatment is brief but references to pertinent theory are provided. Forecasting is our main goal. However, because our most common approach is to fit models to the data, we also emphasize checking model adequacy by analyzing forecast errors for serial correlation or nonconstant variance.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
10145200
Report Number(s):
LA-12766-MS
ON: DE94010215; TRN: 94:008588
DOE Contract Number:  
W-7405-ENG-36
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Apr 1994
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; ARMS CONTROL; VERIFICATION; SAFEGUARDS; PROJECTION SERIES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NONLINEAR PROBLEMS; MATHEMATICS; 350300; 055001; 990200; TECHNICAL ASPECTS; MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS

Citation Formats

Burr, T L. Predicting linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation. United States: N. p., 1994. Web. doi:10.2172/10145200.
Burr, T L. Predicting linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/10145200
Burr, T L. 1994. "Predicting linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/10145200. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10145200.
@article{osti_10145200,
title = {Predicting linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation},
author = {Burr, T L},
abstractNote = {This report is a primer on the analysis of both linear and nonlinear time series with applications in nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation. We analyze eight simulated and two real time series using both linear and nonlinear modeling techniques. The theoretical treatment is brief but references to pertinent theory are provided. Forecasting is our main goal. However, because our most common approach is to fit models to the data, we also emphasize checking model adequacy by analyzing forecast errors for serial correlation or nonconstant variance.},
doi = {10.2172/10145200},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/10145200}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 1994},
month = {Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 1994}
}