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Title: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

Abstract

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposalmore » of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ;  [2]; ;  [3]
  1. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
  2. Gram, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  3. Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
Sponsoring Org.:
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
10109798
Report Number(s):
NUREG/CR-6134; SAND-93-2370
ON: TI95006185; TRN: 95:001429
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Jan 1995
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS; SAFETY ANALYSIS; REACTOR ACCIDENTS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; FISSION PRODUCT RELEASE; BIOSPHERE; REACTOR SAFETY; RISK ASSESSMENT; 220900; 540230; RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS MONITORING AND TRANSPORT

Citation Formats

Helton, J C, Johnson, J D, Rollstin, J A, Shiver, A W, and Sprung, J L. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model. United States: N. p., 1995. Web. doi:10.2172/10109798.
Helton, J C, Johnson, J D, Rollstin, J A, Shiver, A W, & Sprung, J L. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/10109798
Helton, J C, Johnson, J D, Rollstin, J A, Shiver, A W, and Sprung, J L. 1995. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/10109798. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10109798.
@article{osti_10109798,
title = {Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model},
author = {Helton, J C and Johnson, J D and Rollstin, J A and Shiver, A W and Sprung, J L},
abstractNote = {Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.},
doi = {10.2172/10109798},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/10109798}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1995},
month = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1995}
}